TikTok\u7684\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u533b\u4fdd<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2,453 华盛顿特区的新政府总是会带来政策上的转变和改变事情的优先次序。但是如果特朗普总统（Donald Trump）在11月输给拜登（Joe Biden），它可能会触发更突然的转变。 特朗普的一些政策直接来自总统自己的偏好和想法，在两党内部几乎没有制度支持。拜登已经确认了许多方法去改变特朗普的议程，主要是透过他在明年上任后的一些立法或行政行动。但有些事情可能会更快改变。需要注意的有以下5个方面： 经济刺激谈判 特朗普说，新的刺激方案总额为2万亿美元，接近国会民主党人的要求，因此他不会有事的。但是如果特朗普输了，他可能会改变主意。一个大规模的新刺激计划显然对大选前的特朗普有利，因为他可以要求获得信贷援助，以救助数百万正拖欠帐单的选民。但是特朗普一直以来对推出更多的刺激措施反应冷淡，甚至一度叫停谈判。虽然他很快改变了主意，但是无论特朗普之后是赢还是输，在大选后推动一项大的经济刺激法案，都不会为他带来什么好处。 下一个经济刺激措施完全取决于选举结果。如果拜登获胜，民主党人夺得参议院以全面控制国会，他们可能会通过一项与众议院在5月时通过的2.4万亿美元一样大的法案。这可能就是为什么众议院议长佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）在整个秋天一直缓慢推进经济刺激方案讨论的原因。如果让共和党人控制参议院及／或白宫，结果可能导致方案的规模要小得多，因为参议院共和党人只愿意拿出5,000亿美元左右。随着选举压力减轻，有关金额可能订得更低。 Google反垄断案 特朗普抨击Google歧视保守派（没有证据），因此值得追问的是，他的政府对于这家搜索巨头的新反垄断诉讼，是否只源于特朗普个人对Google的敌意。由共和党执政的11个州都加入了司法部的诉讼，使案件带有党派色彩。几个民主党州的司法部长也表示，他们可能会以反竞争行为起诉Google，但是著眼点会有所不同。 自奥巴马政府以来，监管机构一直就Google的市场力量进行调查，两党都想削弱Google的影响力。但是拜登政府可以采取不同的方法。特朗普政府的诉讼集中在Google近乎垄断的网上搜寻领域。一些民主党的监察者则支持将重点放在分拆YouTube、Google搜寻引擎及其他部门上。另外，不愿意加入特朗普政府诉讼的民主党州可能更渴望加入拜登的诉讼，令反垄断诉讼变得更具说服力。不过，任何此类诉讼都可能持续数年，而且Google有可能胜诉。 TikTok的交易 特朗普今年扬言，要禁制中国流行应用程式TikTok，除非一家美国公司收购了它。在9月份，Oracleå’ŒWalmart就购买此社交媒体服务与其中国母公司Byte Dance达成了协议，只是中国政府尚未批准。如果协议没有达成，特朗普的禁令应该会在大选11天后的11月14日生效。中国政府坚持先看由谁胜出大选，这是一个安全的赌注。如果是特朗普胜出，中国可能有充分的理由批准这笔交易。但是如果拜登胜出，中国可能会拒绝这笔交易，以在其他拜登可能采取的行动中提高胜算。如果拜登获胜，特朗普本人甚至可能会认输并取消禁令，因为他一旦离任，将会对此失去兴趣。 奥巴马医保 高等法院将在大选后一周审理一宗旨在推翻奥巴马医保（”Affordable Care Act”）的案件。原告是几个共和党领导的州，但是特朗普政府加入，试图扼杀这项法案。如果拜登击败特朗普，联邦政府在此案的立场肯定会改变，因为拜登和大多数民主党人都是奥巴马医保的坚定支持者。更重要的是，如果拜登获胜，民主党赢得参议院，他们应该能够通过对这项在2010年制订的法案进行修改，这将使最高法院的案件变得毫无意义。同样，当法院在11月10日审理此案时，知道此事将会发生，但要到2021年初才会发生。单凭这一点就可能削弱原告的诉讼，这就是为什么拜登获胜会大大提高保留奥巴马医保的机率。 特朗普关税 特朗普对从中国和其他国家进口的约3,550亿美元商品加征关税，试图将更多的制造业引导回美国，但是成效甚微。一些海外生产商已经转移到其他低关税的国家，但没有回到美国本土。如果拜登获胜，可能不会马上取消特朗普的关税，但他将开拓一条新的路线，强调贸易联盟和遏制中国的多边方法，而不是特朗普式的单打独斗。中国和其他贸易伙伴正为此作好准备，这意味着如果特朗普输了，特朗普式的贸易改革可能很快遭到瓦解。特朗普已经表示，他放弃了原定于2021年到期、与中国的第二阶段贸易协定。拜登可能会利用特朗普的关税作为筹码，以获得其他让步；预期如果特朗普败阵，对贸易的乐观情绪会激增。如果拜登上任，他面临的挑战将会是如何保持这种乐观情绪。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/200907A31_C9074-0_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7780,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/04\/%e5%a4%a7%e9%81%b8%e6%8a%95%e7%a5%a8%e5%80%92%e8%a8%88%e6%99%82%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e8%90%bd%e6%95%97%e5%88%a9%e5%a5%bd%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%89%8d%e9%ab%98\/","url_meta":{"origin":7495,"position":0},"title":"\u5927\u9078\u6295\u7968\u5012\u8a08\u6642\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u843d\u6557\u5229\u597d\u4e2d\u570b\uff1f\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u9ad8\u5b98\u537b\u9019\u6a23\u8aaa","date":"November 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