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2,509 10月2日晚间，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）正式宣布，将对越南木材和汇率相关政策发起“301调查”。按照美国总统特朗普的指示，美国贸易代表将调查越南与进口或使用“非法采伐或非法贸易”木材相关的行为、政策和实践，以及可能导致越南货币贬值和对美国商业造成损害的行为、政策和实践。 2019年越南木材和木制品出口总值为106.47亿美元，对美出口额达53.3亿美元，约占越南所有木材和木制品出口的50%，市场同比增长超过37%。如果美国相关政策最终落地，越南木材行业将遭受重大打击。 当然，越南木材和木制品出口额只占其出口总额的4%，对美出口额占比更低，无论美国最终如何决定，都不会对越南整体出口形势产生重大影响。不过，由于美国此次对越南盾汇率也要做相应调查，结果如何会对未来越南出口走势产生至关重要的影响。 考虑到报告撰写需要数月时间，未来出台各项政策也需要相应的时间周期，美国对越的相关政策落地无论如何也要等到大选之后。因此，是否决定推进各项调查和政策落地仍有较大变数，未来美越经贸关系走向仍有各种不确定性。 就美国现政府而言，在大选前仍然选择较为激进的贸易路线，虽然有其一贯强硬的“美国优先”作为背书，但争取特定选民支持是其关键时间节点面对民主党优势的重要手段。此次美国对越发动的“301调查”，主要针对的是与木材业相关的初级加工品，涉及一定范围内的蓝领工人利益和相关企业主，群体有限，但宣示意义浓厚。 2019年越南人均GDP为2715美元，不到美国人均的5%。对这样一个仍然十分落后、对美国没有任何威胁的中等发展中国家大动干戈，并不能彰显美国独步天下的实力，反而暴露了霸权背后的虚弱。尽管美国的政策工具依然很多，越南也不可能出台有威慑的反制，但美国向这类国家动用这些以前较少或者没有动用过的政策工具，意味着维护霸权体系的成本正在朝它难以承受的方向发展。 特朗普政府执政四年来，用商人心态来治理国家，凡事必交易，对美国利益极端维护，利用各种国内法和行政手段霸凌他国企业和产业，对蝇头小利锱铢必较，不惜与全世界为敌，把美国放到了世界发展的对立面。这种“任性”对外政策在最近几个月随着美国大选的升温正在走向极端。 面对制造业不断空心化的不利局面，美国当然也着急。不过，白宫从没有认真思考如何激励产业创新来重新谋篇布局，利用全球化带来的价值链延伸和产业结构重组的优势，建立新的产业技术优势，反而逆全球化而动，与加拿大、欧洲、中国的贸易战烽火连天，长臂管辖愈发频繁，众多贸易伙伴深受其苦。美国二战以来积累的软实力快速流失，未来会加速由量变向质变转变。 全球对美国是否能为世界和平与发展带来助力的疑虑在普遍增长。美国这种讳疾忌医甚至乱开药方的做法严重干扰了世界经济的正常发展。特别是新冠疫情暴发以来，美国以邻为壑的做法仍然没有收敛，反而变本加厉，丧失了一个世界大国应有的担当。如果白宫主人为了迎合选民而朝孤立主义和美国优先的思维继续发展，华盛顿会发现，那些所谓的“美国优先”政策从根本上就违背了市场规律，最终会反噬其本想讨好的选民。（责任编辑：唐华）<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7088,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fcGCjQKMv2-compress_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C368","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7050,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/10\/06\/%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e6%94%bf%e5%ba%9c%e5%86%8d%e8%88%89%e8%b2%bf%e6%98%93%e5%a4%a7%e6%a3%92%ef%bc%8c%e9%80%99%e4%b8%80%e6%ac%a1%e8%a2%ab%e6%93%8a%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%98%af%e8%b6%8a%e5%8d%97\/","url_meta":{"origin":7087,"position":0},"title":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u518d\u8209\u8cbf\u6613\u5927\u68d2\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6b21\u88ab\u64ca\u4e2d\u7684\u662f\u8d8a\u5357","date":"October 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