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2,859 国庆长假已经接近尾声了，中国出现了一段时间以来新冠疫情之下全球最火爆的旅游和消费潮。它也许没有达到中国长假旅游消费的最巅峰，但已然很令全球震动和羡慕。相信绝大多数中国人对能在今年有这样一个热闹、放松的长假都会挺满意的。 在中国人过这个长假时，世界另有其他很轰动的事情制造了动荡感。特朗普总统感染新冠肺炎最清楚不过地显示了新冠疫情目前在全球大流行的程度，它仍是当下全球大多数国家面临的最严峻挑战。 另外，外高加索纳卡地区的武装冲突加剧，导致严重人员伤亡。就在最近两天，因议会选举争议，我们的邻国吉尔吉斯斯坦陷入大规模政治混乱，示威者攻占了政府和议会的共同所在地“白宫”。纳卡冲突涉及的阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚，以及吉尔吉斯斯坦都是苏联的加盟共和国，纳卡冲突始于苏联解体前夕，吉尔吉斯斯坦则在苏联解体之后陷入动荡。这两处伤疤如果笼统说，都是苏联崩溃的后遗症。 苏联走入历史已经近30年，但多个独立出来的国家至今还没摸准道路，或者未能摆脱解体导致的领土冲突。无数人的人生遭到负面改写，而一个人能有几个30年！ 秩序看来本是人类社会很脆弱的东西，动荡随时准备主导人们的生活。今天的中国处于发展变动的过程中，外部战略环境充满了焦躁和不安，中国能在内外部这么多复杂因素的交织、冲撞中做到一种平衡，给民生提供一个相对稳定的秩序基础，我坚持认为，这是很不容易的，值得全体中国人珍惜。 想想看，美国因新冠肺炎死了20多万人，欧洲的疫情在严重反弹，很多公共场所被迫再次关闭，然后是纳卡和吉尔吉斯斯坦这样的流血冲突和失序，而上述国家和地区的人口加起来也没有中国的人口多。很多人想象中国可能会有与苏联相同的命运，中国实际上面临着诸多陷阱，我们必须在各个方向上谨慎小心，避免堕入某个超级悲剧。现在印度作为人口大国，正在疫情的严重程度上快速赶超美国，它很可能将成为新冠疫情的超级震中。 新中国取得了巨大成就，它转化成了我们所有人的生活从低起点的向上迈进。我明白，很多人不满足，希望国家的进步更快、更彻底，然而无论对人还是对社会、国家来说，起点是无法选择的，我们能够选择的是在这个世界上前进的相对速度。 老胡有了60年的人生阅历，跑了很多国家，我的最大感悟是，没有一个国家是完美的。有的国家财富和优势的存量大，但停滞了，甚至开始走下坡路；还有的后发国家进步快，但目前所处的位置太低。可以说每个国家都有各自的难处。 中国也有自己的纠结，但今天的中国已经形成了一些明显的比较优势。经过数十年发展，我们今天的经济社会发展位置比起步时高多了，同时我们又保持着继续进步的巨大潜力，这两个因素的综合值相当有利。美国同中国翻脸的这三年，中国的发展势头、解决问题的能力都未减弱，这次疫情综合检验了各国的综合能力，结果是不言自明的。 所以说，我理解一些国人有具体的意见和不满意，但我的确不太理解有些人为何对我们的国家有着整体的抵制和唱衰。他们往往挺有知识的，但他们所提的论据模糊而幼稚，有些是中国位置很低时我们仰视西方造成的错觉，有些则源自美西方反华势力的标签式狡辩。我觉得这些人偏离了事实，掉入了严重的主观主义，他们在犯一些年后不忍回视的思想错误。 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