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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u6587 | \u9646\u70c1\u5b9c \u9898 | \u9ec4\u7d2b\u9553 \u56fe | \u9976\u5efa\u5b81\u3001\u5362\u6587\u7965 \u5ba1 | \u7a0b\u8fdc \u8fd4\u56de\u641c\u72d0\uff0c\u67e5\u770b\u66f4\u591a<\/a>\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u8be5\u6587\u89c2\u70b9\u4ec5\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u8005\u672c\u4eba\uff0c\u641c\u72d0\u53f7\u7cfb\u4fe1\u606f\u53d1\u5e03\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u641c\u72d0\u4ec5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u5b58\u50a8\u7a7a\u95f4\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2,968 亚洲有个神奇的国家，作为一个面积不大、资源不多的岛国，二战之后遇到了不少的危机，但是每每到了人们以为其经济已经“无药可救”之际，这个国家又神奇地浴火重生，就像希腊神话中的“不死鸟”一样，这个国家就是日本。 虽然国土面积小，但是日本却一直拥有凌云壮志。即使是在美国通过《广场协议》，令其“失去”二三十年之后，但如日本今仍稳坐全球第三大经济体的宝座。这也令人们开始思考：签订《广场协议》之后，日本做对了什么？ 说到这里，就不得不提到《广场协议》之后日本新的经济发展战略。1985年签署《广场协议》的日本，在1986年就开始转变经济发展思路——从出口导向型经济转向内需主导，着力于摆脱过分依赖出口的问题，为该国发展“双循环经济”奠定了基础。 出口、投资和消费是拉动经济的三驾马车，而所谓的“双循环”经济，就是强调由出口和消费共同拉动。1987年，日本着手制定了1988年至1992年经济发展计划，将中期宏观经济增速定为4%，其中内需增长目标为4.5%，出口为-0.5%，走上“双循环”经济之路。 俗话说，“枪打出头鸟”。在美国的“æ•´é¡¿”下，日本开始卖惨，被认定“失去”几十年之后，日本不再成为美国的重点目标。2019年，日本突然限制对韩国出口3种核心尖端材料，世界才恍然发现，走上“双循环”经济道路的日本，原来这么强大。 那么，靠着“双循环”经济实现浴火重生的日本，其经验对于即将走上“双循环经济”之路的中国来说，能带来哪些启示呢？ 启示一，要想提高内需对经济增长的贡献，最重要的是实现产业升级。 从日本经济转型的结果来看，该国的内需得到极大的拉动。数据显示，自上世纪80年代以来，日本最终民间消费增长率一直保持在55%这一高位上下。 在减税降费、降低利率等一系列措施的推动下，日本居民对多样化的消费和休闲娱乐生活的追求也日益增加，该国餐饮业、旅游业、文娱业、医疗业和体育业等多个行业也因此得到了快速发展。 不过，减税降费等积极的财政和货币政策，其实只是一个“助攻”，要想真正拉动内需，其实还是得从推动产业转型升级、提高居民收入做起。否则，光凭政府一己之力，这种模式也维持不了多少年。 因此，产业结构调整，其实是日本刺激“内循环”的重中之重。从具体实践来看，此后日本开始将经济发展的重心向知识密集型产业转移。 要实现这一转型，一方面，日本将石油、钢铁和造船等传统制造业的规模缩减20%，从中“抽”出的人力物力，则转移到新兴产业之中。 另一方面，日本大力扶持电子通讯、计算机、服务、新材料、生物工程和航天业等高新技术产业，不少知名日企巨头都纷纷从中低端产业改入这些更为高端的“赛道”中。为了保障人才供应，日本还大力支持教育科研工作。 这样一来，日本经济主导产业开始向高端产业转型，产业附加值得到极大提升，居民收入自然也就得到改善，这才是该国内需提高的真正来源。 更重要的是，实现产业升级之后，日本企业开始控制先进材料和先进制造设备等上游产业，同时也占据了研发核心零件这一中游产业。掌握了科技创新能力的日本，开始在国际竞争中占据重要的位置。 启示二，采取审慎的货币政策，防范大型资产泡沫。 客观来看，日本这场经济转型，也并非没有瑕疵，否则日本也就不会陷入“失去的20å¹´”这种可怕的经济陷阱之中了。 为了尽快拉动内需增长，日本大幅降低其基准利率，央行贴现率从1980å¹´çš„9%下降到1987å¹´çš„2.5%。有分析指出，在1985年到1990年期间，日本央行利率调整不够审慎。 因为相比于一次调整一般为25个基点的美联储，日本单次调整的幅度普遍为50个基点，最大为100个基点。而调整幅度越大，对其决策准确性的要求也就越高。因为一旦决策失误，其对金融市场甚至整体经济的影响，势必也将加大。 （注：图为自1890财年以来日本政府债务占名义GDP的变化） 不够审慎的货币政策，最终给日本股市带来了大量泡沫，并加剧其负债程度。而相比于提高居民收入，降息的做法对于释放居民消费潜力、推动实体经济发展的积极作用并不大，反而加剧股市和房地产泡沫的膨胀，为“失去的20å¹´”埋下伏笔。 由此看来，要想推动“双循环”经济，实现产业转型升级才是根本，过度依赖宽松的货币政策，反而得不偿失。只有通过适度的货币政策，辅以积极的财政、产业政策，并建立防范泡沫风险的预警机制，合理引导资本流动，使其流入实体经济，才有助于在推动经济发展的同时，避免大型资产泡沫的危害。 æ–‡ | 陆烁宜 题 | 黄紫镓 图 | 饶建宁、卢文祥 审 | 程远 è¿”回搜狐，查看更多声明：该文观点仅代表作者本人，搜狐号系信息发布平台，搜狐仅提供信息存储空间服务。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6818,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/84aef0bfee3f4ea38efe14275e18ad27_\u526f\u672c_\u526f\u672c.png?fit=700%2C391","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14615,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/03\/13\/%e6%9b%be%e7%b6%93%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9b%e5%80%8b%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e8%80%81%e4%ba%8c%ef%bc%8c%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%a2%ab%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%90%9e%e5%9e%ae%ef%bc%9f%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":6817,"position":0},"title":"\u66fe\u7d93\u7684\u56db\u500b\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u8001\u4e8c\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u641e\u57ae\uff1f\u4e2d\u570b\u8a72\u5438\u53d6\u4ec0\u9ebd\u6559\u8a13\uff1f","date":"March 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