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2,201æ–‡\/行走斯图卡 前两天，美洲国家再度组团要求华盛顿取消对古巴的封锁，这虽然不大可能让美国改弦更张，但也反映出一个现实：现在的美洲不是美国说了算的美洲，甚至不会跟华盛顿站在一条线上，尤其是巴西大选之后。 作为南美洲最大的国家，巴西刚刚选出了新的领导人，前总统卢拉将再度出任巴西总统。但是外界注意到，卢拉的胜选优势并不是很明显，仅仅领先现任总统博索纳罗1.8个百分点，可谓的险胜；尤其是投票结果出炉后，博索纳罗一直没有公开承认自己败选，有着“巴西特朗普”之称的这位总统，会不会跟正牌特朗普那样掀起一场“政变”，这就成为外界关注的焦点。 从目前的公开报道来看，博索纳罗并没有选择孤注一掷，尽管连日来他的支持者试图封锁道路、呼吁军队发动政变，也有社交媒体的消息称“忠于博索纳罗的军队已经开进首都”，但博索纳罗本人似乎已经接受了败选的结果。据多家外媒报道，博索纳罗在总统府与的过渡团队、新当选副总统阿尔克明（Geraldo Alckmin）进行了短暂会晤，协商政权交接事宜；与此同时，博索纳罗还公开呼吁支持者结束对道路的封锁，因为这只会损害巴西经济和社会。 但我们要提防的是华盛顿“孤注一掷”。18位拉美国家前领导人致信拜登要求解除对古巴的封锁、哥伦比亚总统佩特罗访问委内瑞拉，这就是“形势比人强”啊，尤其是卢拉上台后，从阿根廷到墨西哥，拉美主要国家将全部由左翼政府领导。美媒评论认为，以往美国针对拉美地区，都是拉拢其中的右翼政府，对拉美国家进行分化并各个击破；现在这一套做法已经不行了，因为找不到立足点；如果拉美国家组团跟美国唱反调，对美国的全球影响力将会是一个极大的负面效果，因为别人都会说，“你连美洲都领导不了，怎么去领导全世界？” 不管从哪个角度来看，华盛顿极度不希望拉美地区出现“左翼江山一片红”的局面。对于华盛顿来说，欧洲再度出现了“跨大西洋联盟”正在破碎的声音，不少民众要求取消对俄罗斯的制裁，有些国家甚至开始这方面的操作，在对华关系上欧洲更是“越来越不听话”；在亚洲地区，印太战略基本上等于破产，越南领导人对中国的访问，以及中越联合声明，意味着美国过去几年在东南亚的外交成果基本为零——作为美国外交基本盘的美洲，已经变得离心离德，外界也很好奇，华盛顿的外交能力咋就这么菜了呢。 更重要的是，如果只是拉美国家“变天”，华盛顿也不会太在意，然而越来越多的拉美国家参与中国的“一带一路”倡议，这就会更加刺激华盛顿的焦虑。在这样的情况下，我们一方面要祝贺卢拉再度当选巴西总统，另一方面也想说一句：防火防盗防美国，当美国发现自己在拉美逐渐失去立足点的时候，一定会想办法创造一个，最直接的方法就是自己的“三件宝”：买办、制裁加颜革。 对于频频传出政变传闻的巴西来说，一定要慎防美国下黑手：博索纳罗有众多支持者、包括军队，而卢拉的优势也不是很明显，对于美国来说，巴西有搞政变的合适条件，正所谓“害人之心不可有、防人之心不可无”，希望博索纳罗和卢拉能够顺利完成权力交接，对于巴西来说，这才是最好的结果。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/download-1_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":37911,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/02\/22\/%e9%97%9c%e9%8d%b5%e6%99%82%e5%88%bb%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%8f%88%e4%b8%80%e7%9b%9f%e5%8f%8b%e5%80%92%e5%90%91%e4%bf%84%e7%be%85%e6%96%af%ef%bc%81%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e5%b0%b7\/","url_meta":{"origin":47495,"position":0},"title":"\u95dc\u9375\u6642\u523b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53c8\u4e00\u201c\u76df\u53cb\u201d\u5012\u5411\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\uff01\u62dc\u767b\u5c37\u5c2c\u4e86","date":"February 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