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2,175新事物崛起，旧事物衰落，中印两国会在什么时候超越美国，成为世界第一第二大经济体呢？据美国《福布斯》网站日前刊发美国政策基金会专家斯图尔特·å®‰å¾·æ£®çš„文章称，再过几十年，中国和印度将超越美国和欧盟成为世界领先的经济体。按照美国专家的预测，到2100年，中国的GDP世界占比将升至27%，印度的GDP世界占比提升到16%，而那时美国的世界GDP的占比降至12%，中印两国的GDP之和将增至43%。换言之，再过78年，中国将是世界第一大经济体，印度第二，美国第三。 美国专家是根据中印美各自的经济发展水平以及劳动力规模和生产效率等各项数据推算出各大经济体之间的变化。在美国专家看来，美国要保持高水平经济发展，那么需要通过提高移民水平，因为较高的移民水平将促进美国经济长期发展。按照专家的分析，如果每年增加28%的移民，美国劳动力劳动力不足会得到缓解。问题是，美国在移民问题上并不宽松，从特朗普到现在的拜登，美国限制中美洲移民通过美墨边境进入本土，尽管那些移民把美国当成了“天堂”，认为在美国可以找到工作，并获得较高的社会福利。但现实问题是，美国不如从前，国内抗议、种族歧视、枪支暴力等问题层出不群。单纯通过移民来促进美国经济增长，增加劳动力是不行的。 上述预测报告虽然有意捧高中印两国的经济发展，但可以说明几个问题：第一，美国衰落是不争的事实，美国需要采取措施重换生机。长期以来，美国凭借经济上的优势横行霸道，还利用美元优势收割世界财富，但由于国内劳动力减少，制造业空心化等问题，导致美国失去了制造业一流强国的地位，美国现在的经济以金融为主，逐渐失去了国际竞争力。再不采取自救方式的话，美国很容易被中印赶超。 第二，中印赶超美国或许不需要78年，中印两国现在的经济发展很快，两国又是世界前两大人口大国，市场潜力巨大，两国只要保持发展趋势，那么超越美国和欧盟不是问题。尤其是中国的发展速度更为惊人，即便是疫情之下，中国仍能保持经济正增长，中国经济的自我修复和发展后劲不可限量。其实，普京说过，按照购买力计算的话，中国已成为世界第一大经济体。 第三，世界保持发展的趋势不会改变，美国很难通过霸凌压榨手段维持自身发展，顺应多极化趋势才有利于美国摆脱危机。美国在过去的几十年来一直是世界老大，但经过疫情等各种危机的冲击，美国早已变得外强中干，美国想通过制裁和挑起冲突的方式来维持发展，是行不通的。 无论美国专家的预测靠不靠谱，可以肯定的是，中国的崛起不是任何力量可以阻挡的，美国如果清醒的话，应该及时与中国印度保持合作发展，为推动世界进步而做出贡献！<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/1667651091_57212aaa1cd5395fb1b4427f0cc785c2_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8420,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/15\/%e5%bd%ad%e5%8d%9a%e7%a4%be%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b2035%e5%b9%b4%e5%b0%87%e8%b6%85%e7%be%8e%e6%88%90%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%ab%94\/","url_meta":{"origin":47483,"position":0},"title":"\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u5c08\u5bb6\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b2035\u5e74\u5c07\u8d85\u7f8e\u6210\u6700\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4","date":"November 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