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2,375众所周知，美国是当今世界综合国力最强的经济体，美国国债也一直因为其安全、稳定且收益率极高的特点，在国际投资市场广受欢迎。许多国家都持有大量的美债。但在近日，美国政府最大的两个债主——中国和日本却不约而同地开始减持手中的美元债券。 根据美国财政部最新数据，截止到今年5月，中国已连续六个月减持美债，现在中国手中的美债金额已降至9808亿美元。这也是12年来，中国持有美债金额首度跌破万亿美元大关。而作为美国现在最大的债主，日本也已经连续三个月减持美债，截至5月末，日本的美债持有量也已下降到了1.2万亿美元，为2020年来的最低值。 对于中日两国大幅度减持美债，CNBC等美国媒体普遍认为，这是由于美联储近期为了解决通胀危机，连续进行了三次加息，导致了美债的吸引力下降。美媒还特意指出，中国减持美债还有优化外债结构的考虑。但美媒没有明说的是，中国减持美债的举动，一定程度上也是由于在经济领域对美国信任程度降低。 图注：中国持有美国国债数量变化（图源：彭博社） 首先，俄乌两国兵戎相见后，美国率领西方国家冻结了普京政府名下价值约3000亿美元的海外资产，而在这些海外资产之中，就有着不少是美债。除了俄罗斯，美国及其西方盟国，最近几年可没少单方面行动，冻结他国的海外资产。 而在特朗普掀起贸易战和拜登“印太战略”的影响下，中美关系远远算不上融洽，两国在许多国际问题上都有极大分歧，两国关系距离正式好转还有着很长的路要走。在此情况下，中国逐渐减持美债，优化外债结构，以防俄罗斯等国经历的事重演，也无可厚非。 其次，国债是以国家信用为基础的债券，而国家信用的高低，往往与经济形势直接挂钩。美债此前之所以坚挺，就是由于有美国经济作为基础。但在经历新冠疫情的不断冲击后，美国经济本就复苏乏力。俄乌冲突的爆发和西方对俄制裁导致的能源、粮食危机，更是让美国经济雪上加霜，通胀率已达40年来最高。 图注：美联储 为了解决通胀，美国又连续加息，使得美国经济硬着陆风险加大。如果美国经济真的崩盘，能否如期还债无疑将成为一个问题。毕竟，根据美方此前公布的数据，截至今年1月底，美国联邦政府的未偿债务余额已达30万亿美元。而在2021年，美国全年的国内生产总值也只有23万亿美元。更不用说，美国目前的经济形势更加严峻，今年第一季度，美国的国内生产总值已经出现了倒退。 值得注意的是，看到美国经济不稳定性加剧的，可不光中日两国。据悉，在俄乌冲突爆发，拜登政府挥起“制裁大棒”后，其他国家推动多年都没能显著增快的“去美元化”进程，反而陡然加速。沙特、印度、韩国等国，都在不同程度的减持美债。 由此可见，拜登政府纠结盟友对俄罗斯展开的制裁政策，还没能真正打垮普京政府，反而打在了自己的身上，并且还在某种程度上撼动了美元的根基。而从目前的情况来看，拜登领导的美国政府，似乎很难逆转美国眼下糟糕的经济形势。而同样难以被逆转的，恐怕还有美元影响力的消退，以及其他货币的在全球贸易结算体系中占比的上升之势。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/v2-bc2af0f688d68c9c4f1eed2ae6655bb8_1440w_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":46584,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/08\/18\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%b2%a1%e6%94%bf%e9%83%a8%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%86%8d%e6%8b%8b%e5%94%ae%e7%be%8e%e5%82%b5130%e5%84%84%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%aa%92%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%8f%af\/","url_meta":{"origin":45134,"position":0},"title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u518d\u62cb\u552e\u7f8e\u50b5130\u5104\uff0c\u7f8e\u5a92\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u6e05\u7a7a\u7f8e\u50b5","date":"August 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