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2,608山雨欲来风满楼！ 早在2019年，法国总统马克龙便做出重要判断：“美国正在背弃我们，北约正在经历脑死亡。” 到了今年的6月份，德国总理默克尔也郑重指出：“随着疫情大流行的发展，世界将再经历一次重新洗牌。” 如今看来，这一切预想都逐渐成为了现实，而欧洲也成为了这场变革的风暴中心之一。 9月18日，德国防长“老调重弹”，英国海军也坐不住了。 先来看看德国发生了什么。 当地时间17日，德国国防部长卡伦鲍尔在接受采访时表示，德国将在今年10月底之前，提出一项建立“欧洲快速反应部队”的计划。 说起这支特殊部队，其实早在2018年的时候，就已经被提上了议程。 当年的6月25日，法国、德国、比利时、丹麦、爱沙尼亚、葡萄牙、西班牙、荷兰和英国，这9个国家的国防部长便共同签订了这份议定书。 然而，这一旨在低强度冲突中，能够迅速做出武力干涉的战斗部队，却由于英国脱欧、疫情来袭等原因，在之后的两三年内毫无音讯、石沉大海。 当然了，这种情况也不是第一次出现。如果硬要追究起来，那可就得追溯到上个世纪。 在1999年的时候，欧盟就讨论过组建类似部队的问题，甚至在2007年真的凑出了1500人，只不过后者从来没有出动过任务，可谓是“名存实亡”。 而如今，随着阿富汗局势一朝变天，驻阿美军不顾盟友仓皇撤退，也让不少欧洲国家意识到：求人不如求己，再也不能依赖靠不住的美军了。 也正因如此，德防长卡伦鲍尔才坦然承认：阿富汗局势曾让她“考虑辞职”，但为了避免以后再发生这样的事，她还是决定继续“战斗”到底。 显然，卡伦鲍尔想要促成一支真正的“欧洲军”，以避免在欧美利益不一致时，欧洲国家无法依靠自己的力量行动。 而随之而来的问题是，欧洲国家想要构建的这支部队，究竟是怎样一支部队？ 毋庸置疑的是，以如今欧盟一体化的进展来看，这支部队不可能是独立于各国主权之外的“欧盟私军”，而是类似于维和部队，只是在行动上统一调遣。 至于最重要的人数问题，如果按照1999年的计划，总数将超过6万。可根据近些年欧盟透露的消息来看，这支快速反应部队大约会有5000人。 但话说回来，这些倒还只是细枝末节，关键是德国防长的这番表态，发生在如今这样一个比较敏感的背景下，实在是很不寻常。 对此，分享3点粗浅的看法。 1，欧洲方面如此密集的表态，可见“欧洲军”真的不远了。 实际上，在德国防长发生之前，同为欧盟“两架马车”之一的法国，也在几天前由防长代为表态：法国将致力于实现欧盟防务自主！ 而欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，也在16日代表欧盟27个国家表示：要加快发展欧洲防务联盟，以避免在需要使用军事手段时，只能寻求美国和北约的帮助。 显然，阿富汗局势的变化，成为了欧洲防务自主的“催化剂”，只要事态继续这样发展下去，即便有美国的阻挠，“欧洲军”也不远了。 2，尽管德国方面没有明说，但显然是在声援法国。 毕竟，美英澳组建AUKUS三边安全联盟一事，已经在全世界闹得沸沸扬扬。而澳大利亚，撕毁了同法国价值700亿美元的潜艇建造合同，更是让法国难堪不已。 因此在昨天，法国总统无视了美国“亡羊补牢”式的言语安抚，直接召回了驻美、驻澳两位大使，更是将这种紧张的气氛降至冰点。 在这样的情况下，德国防长再一次强调“欧洲军”事宜，显然是在替法国“敲边鼓”。 更要注意，法国总统马克龙在16日晚，刚刚于巴黎会见了到访的德国总理默克尔。而在当天的晚宴上，“欧洲防务与战略自主”正是两位元首重点讨论的问题。 3，如今欧盟谈论的“欧洲快速反应部队”，已经和过去不同了。 最主要的变化是，原先参与这一议题的国家，都是欧盟的成员国。可如今为了给英国留下一席之地，荷兰首相亲自向英国首相发出邀请，法德也同时表态支持。 从中可以看出，英国对欧洲的意义十分重要，欧盟也不肯在无视英国的情况下，搞成所谓的“欧洲防务联盟”，毕竟英国与欧洲大陆仅隔着一条海峡。 当然了，对于英国而言，这当然是一件好事。一方面，英国可以在美国与欧盟间左右逢源；另一方面，这对于约翰逊政府实现“国际化英国”的战略也大有裨益。 总之，在欧盟关系来到历史的十字路口之际，英国凭借着特殊的地缘地位，显然能借此赚得“盆满钵满”。 而说起这个，就不得不谈到美英澳的核潜艇建设方案，以及英国海军“过于巧合”的一则消息。 就在17日，英国皇家海军发布消息称，英国和罗尔斯-罗伊斯公司，以及其技术伙伴BAE系统公司，签订了一项1.7亿英镑的合同，用于研发下一代核潜艇。 而这个消息发布的时间，和英美宣布帮助澳大利亚制造核潜艇的时间，仅仅只隔了2天。要说这其中没有什么联系，恐怕谁也不信。 说起来，英国海军拥有4艘机敏级核潜艇，另有1艘正在测试的最后阶段，还有2艘也在接受最后测试。所以，英国海军未来将有7艘机敏级核潜艇。 这样的力量，自然比不上美国，可与法国相比也只是“旗鼓相当”。因此，如果英国想要在欧洲自主防务联盟的体系下，拥有更多的话语权，就必须要不断提升海军的实力水平。 更何况，研发新一代核潜艇的投入从哪来？如今看来，大概率是通过帮助澳大利亚建造核潜艇的回报，反哺英国的下一代核潜艇研制计划。 显然，英国的小算盘打得够响，既巩固了英美关系，又从澳大利亚手中赚到了钱，还能借此提升自己的军事力量，以强化在欧洲事务上的话语权，可谓是一举多得。 不得不说，这场西方阵营的“分裂”大戏，已经轰轰烈烈地拉开了帷幕，各方势力也都找到了自己站位。 只是，这其中谁会是输家、谁才是赢家，且拭目以待吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29348,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/a818da21b2a8a998_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":22578,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/06\/28\/%e4%b8%8b%e4%b8%80%e5%a0%b4%e5%a4%a7%e6%b5%81%e8%a1%8c%e7%84%a1%e8%97%a5%e5%8f%af%e6%b2%bb%ef%bc%81%e8%81%af%e5%90%88%e5%9c%8b%e7%99%bc%e5%b8%83%e9%87%8d%e7%a3%85%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a\/","url_meta":{"origin":29329,"position":0},"title":"\u201c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5834\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7121\u85e5\u53ef\u6cbb\uff01\u201d\u806f\u5408\u570b\u767c\u5e03\u91cd\u78c5\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u707d\u96e3\u5df2\u5e2d\u5377\u7f8e\u570b","date":"June 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