<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6548\u5e94\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5f88\u5f97\u610f<\/h1>\n

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\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u5f88\u5931\u843d<\/h1>\n

\u6b27\u76df\u5f88\u5931\u843d\u30029\u670816\u65e5\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u4e24\u4f4d\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u76f8\u7ee7\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u82f1\u6fb3\u8fbe\u6210\u4e09\u8fb9\u5b89\u5168\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u672a\u4e8b\u5148\u901a\u62a5\u6b27\u76df\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e00\u52a8\u6001\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u5404\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5916\u957f\u8ba8\u8bba\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u65e9\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u660e\u767d\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u6b27\u76df\u89c6\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4e86\u538b\u5236\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u201c\u72ec\u7acb\u201d\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u51b7\u6218\u9057\u4ea7\u201c\u5317\u7ea6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201d\u770b\u7740\u6b27\u76df\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6b27\u76df\u4e00\u6709\u98ce\u5439\u8349\u52a8\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u624b\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u53d1\u52a8\u79d1\u7d22\u6c83\u6218\u4e89\u6253\u538b\u6b27\u5143\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5f53\u6cd5\u56fd\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u201c\u6b27\u6d32\u519b\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u79d8\u4e66\u957f\u7acb\u523b\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b7b\u6d3b\u4e0d\u8ba9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u52a0\u5165\u5317\u7ea6\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u8ba9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5145\u5f53\u201c\u654c\u4eba\u201d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u540d\u6b63\u8a00\u987a\u5730\u201c\u4fdd\u62a4\u6b27\u76df\u201d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u66fe\u7ecf\u52a8\u5458\u8fc7\u6cd5\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u672a\u9042\uff0c\u53c8\u6311\u52a8\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u548c\u524a\u5f31\u6b27\u6d32\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba4\u6e05\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u542c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u8054\u76df\u201d\u7684\u5ffd\u60a0\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u9700\u8981\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\uff0c\u72ec\u7acb\u505a\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u5f88\u6124\u6012<\/h1>\n

\u6b27\u76df\u5931\u843d\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5f88\u6124\u6012\u3002\u6fb3\u82f1\u7f8e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bfc\u81f4\u6cd5\u6fb32016\u5e74\u7b7e\u7f72\u768412\u8258\u4ef7\u503c660\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6f5c\u8247\u51fa\u53e3\u5408\u540c\u88ab\u6495\u6bc1\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u65e2\u80cc\u79bb\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u53c8\u52ab\u593a\u519b\u706b\u751f\u610f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u5916\u957f\u548c\u9632\u957f\u6012\u4e0d\u53ef\u904f\uff0c\u79f0\u201c\u6781\u5176\u5931\u671b\u201d\uff0c\u65a5\u8d23\u4e09\u56fd\u201c\u80cc\u540e\u6345\u5200\u201d\uff0c\u62b1\u6028\u201c\u76df\u53cb\u95f4\u4e0d\u8be5\u5982\u6b64\u884c\u4e8b\u201d\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u662f\u6b27\u76df\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bf9\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fbe\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6218\u7565\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u80cc\u4fe1\u5f03\u4e49\u7684\u4e8b\u90fd\u5e72\u5f97\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8ddf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6df7\u9664\u4e86\u81ea\u53d6\u5176\u8fb1\u5916\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u8def\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u6539\u5f26\u66f4\u5f20\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u5fb7\u3001\u610f\u7b49\u56fd\u79ef\u6781\u63a8\u52a8\u6b27\u76df\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u56db\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174<\/h1>\n

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\u4e94\u3001\u65e5\u5370\u5f88\u8499\u5708<\/h1>\n

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\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

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2,463人民网报道，美国白宫9月15日发布声明说，美国、英国、澳大利亚正式宣布建立一个名为“奥库斯(Aukus)”的三方安全伙伴关系。这个“奥库斯”被媒体称为“印太小北约”。此前，美日印澳四方机制也被媒体称为“亚洲小北约”，为什么美国还要搞个“奥库斯”呢？ 与“四国机制”不同的是，“奥斯库”一成立，美国就宣布要联手英国帮助澳大利亚发展核潜艇，使其有能力在印太地区实施核潜艇巡航。这就凸显出它是一个“军事组织”，故称其为“印太小北约”更为贴切。 然而有趣的事接着来了。法国此前同澳大利亚签订的价值400亿美元的12艘潜艇采购合同给搅黄了。这让法国大为光火：“这种排挤法国的决定表明美国的战略缺乏一致性”“此举只是增强了欧洲达成战略自主的必要性。”美国毫不掩饰地宣称将向澳大利亚分享其机密、敏感的核潜艇技术。美英此举却引起了国际社会的质疑和谴责。16日，外交部发言人赵立坚在例行记者会上表示，美国、英国与澳大利亚开展核潜艇合作，严重破坏地区和平稳定，加剧军备竞赛，损害国际核不扩散协定。 这件事产生了以下效应： 一、澳大利亚很得意 美国和它的宗主国英国才是美国盟国体系的核心。澳大利亚这次虽被拉入这个小圈子，似乎升级了，但它的三流盟友的地位并无变化，只不过充当美国的在亚洲的马前卒而已。澳政客莫里森可不这样认为，他以为多年的反华表演终于有了回报，自己的地位升至美国的欧洲盟友之上，日本都难以望其项背。澳大利亚一夜之间成了拥有核潜艇及其技术的国家，着实可以得意一阵。受到澳大利亚的“鼓励”，日本会不会进一步再美国面前挣表现？有待观察。 二、欧盟很失落 欧盟很失落。9月16日，欧盟两位发言人相继表示，美英澳达成三边安全伙伴关系并未事先通报欧盟，欧盟将研究这一动态以及由此产生的影响，并由各成员国外长讨论对策。其实，欧盟早就应该明白美国是不可靠的。美国实际上是将欧盟视为自己的战略竞争对手的。美国为了压制欧盟的“独立”倾向，利用冷战遗产“北约组织”看着欧盟，只要欧盟一有风吹草动，美国就会出手。比如发动科索沃战争打压欧元。比如当法国提出建“欧洲军”时，北约秘书长立刻发出警告。美国死活不让俄罗斯加入北约，就是要让俄罗斯充当“敌人”的角色，美国才可能名正言顺地“保护欧盟”。美国曾经动员过法国脱欧未遂，又挑动英国脱欧，目的就是分裂和削弱欧洲。通过这次事件，欧盟应该认清美国本质，不要再听美国所谓“价值观联盟”的忽悠。欧洲需要战略自主，独立做出自己的判断和决策。 三、法国很愤怒 欧盟失落，欧盟的核心成员国很愤怒。澳英美交易导致法澳2016年签署的12艘价值660亿美元的潜艇出口合同被撕毁。面对这种既背离政治和安全信任，又劫夺军火生意的行为，法国外长和防长怒不可遏，称“极其失望”，斥责三国“背后捅刀”，抱怨“盟友间不该如此行事”。法国是欧盟战略自主的倡导者，这次事件也是美国国对法国的一个教训。法国应该认识到，美国为了达到自己的战略目标，什么背信弃义的事都干得出来。跟美国混除了自取其辱外没有出路。法国应该改弦更张，联合德、意等国积极推动欧盟战略自主，建立自己独立的武装力量。 四、英国很高兴 英国终于又获得主导世界事务的机会了。英国脱欧，不管美国如何忽悠，英国人的后悔之情是溢于言表的。英国多次提出二次公投，换了三任首相才勉强脱掉欧洲。脱离了欧洲，英国立马成了“雾都孤儿”，求美国收养成了英国政客主要的政治目标。所以，英国积极配合美国的遏华战略。在香港问题上试图为美国火中取栗；G7峰会前英国和美国又签署了一个《新大西洋宪章》；不久前，英国万里迢迢把唯一的女皇号航母派到南海来“自由航行”。这次又与美国组成了一个军事同盟“奥库斯”，进一步巩固了自己在美国心目中的地位，与北约其它盟国拉开了距离。 五、日印很蒙圈 有专家认为这是美国的一个昏招，它意在围堵中国，却给自己的盟友关系制造了“分裂”，这种看法有一定道理。包括“美日澳印四方机制”中的日本和印度心情也是复杂的，它们未必猜得透美国的心思，会产生不被信任感。日本或许要更加表现积极，尤其在台湾问题上，日本近来的动作幅度很大，明确叫嚣要阻止中国武统台湾。印度本身就是一个骑墙派，既想在美国那里捞好处，也想在俄国那里捞油水。金砖国家、上合组织都有它。美国知道印度心不诚，没有当印度是兄弟，利用印度的大国野心而已，不会信任印度的。美国搞一个三国军事同盟连日本都不带上玩，更不可能带印度玩。 六、中国可作为 这件事对中国而言是坏事，也可以变成好事。首先，中国可以依据联合国《核不扩散条约》谴责美国不顾国际规则，违反国际法，给地区和平带来威胁。这有利于中国争取战略主动。其次，中国的专家学者、智库和研究所可以帮助欧洲分析这件事情上对欧洲的不利，拉出一个美国坑害欧盟的清单，鼓励欧洲进行战略自主，推动《中欧投资协定》早日生效。再次，应该注意到新西兰反应强烈，反对澳大利亚的核潜艇到自己海域游弋，可以替新西兰发声，借此巩固中新关系。中国要注意始终把目标盯住美国，对澳大利亚无需多说。接下来，中国还要和11国谈加入“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”，可以借题发挥，为谈判创造良好的氛围。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29344,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/6142ea75a31b9_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C379","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":40639,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/04\/22\/%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e4%b9%8b%e6%88%b0%e6%9c%83%e6%89%93%e9%9f%bf%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%89%be%e5%88%b03%e5%80%8b%e4%bb%a3%e7%90%86%e4%ba%ba%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":29319,"position":0},"title":"\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u6230\u6703\u6253\u97ff\u55ce\uff1f\u7f8e\u570b\u627e\u52303\u500b\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u52a0\u901f\u63a8\u90324\u4ef6\u4e8b","date":"April 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