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\n<\/div>\n

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2,466真理，永远在大炮射程之内！——俾斯麦 种种迹象表明，不论时代如何变革、国际格局如何演变，“强者为尊、弱肉强食”这样的丛林法则，依旧适用于当前这个变幻莫测、充满大国较量的世界。 作为国际舞台上的重头戏，美俄较量无疑是最受各方关注的焦点，过去数十年里，双方“掰手腕”的身影几乎遍布全球各地。 眼下，随着民主党元老拜登上台，美俄之间的新一轮对抗也就此拉开了序幕。 在外交上，白宫联合欧洲盟友不断对俄施压，引发了美俄、俄欧之间的“互相驱逐外交官”戏码。 在军事上，美国带着英法德、北约等一众小兄弟频繁在俄周边举行军演，并意图通过对乌克兰提供军事援助、进一步牵制莫斯科。 而在经济上，拜登上台后连续对俄施加了多项经济制裁，并多次对“北溪2”项目指手画脚，试图钳制俄经济发展。 不得不说，还没上台前就曾直言“俄罗斯是美国最大敌人”的拜登，在上台之后，对俄发起的制裁真可谓是“上下其手、不留余地”。当然，面对美国的无端挑衅，普京也选择了以牙还牙、加倍奉还。 然而，随着美俄间的较量与对抗持续升级，外界不免担忧——同样作为拥核大国的美俄，是否会发生冲突或核战、引发更大的混乱与动荡？ 关键时刻，五角大楼突然表态了。 14日，美军参谋长联席会议副主席海腾将军表示，俄罗斯的核力量已经全面升级、并走向现代化，但美国却没有。在这样的情况下，美国不想与俄罗斯发生冲突，因为一旦冲突发生，就很可能升级为核战，给所有参战国、乃至整个地球带去灾难。 海腾还表示，眼下，如果能排除与俄发生冲突的可能性，那就将是美国的主要战略成就。 此外，海腾还对当前美国的“武器升级速度”进行了吐槽，称在“官僚主义程序”的背景下，美国明显要比对手慢太多了。 很显然，从海腾的表态来看，美国不会寻求与俄方开战，这之中既有不想，也有“不能与不敢”。 要注意，美军参联会副主席是美国军方的二把手（一把手是参联会主席米利），同时也是五角大楼绝对的高层人物。 因此，海腾此番表态，代表的绝不仅仅是个人，更多的还是美国军方，而且还颇有“自知之明”的意味。 对此，且谈5点粗浅看法吧。 1，美俄双方如今的“核家底”旗鼓相当，美国已经失去了主导权和“优越感”。 今年4月，美俄双方在恢复《新削减战略武器条约》的背景下，交换了目前的核武库数据，显示俄方拥有1456个核弹头，相比上次交换数据多了9个；而美国则有1357个，相比上次少了100个。 要注意，该数据每半年交换一次，上一次是在2020å¹´9月。 很显然，美国的核弹头数量不增反降，而且还直接少了100个，背后原因无非2个——一是核弹头“过期、失效”，不得不被淘汰；二是被美国拆解、另做他用。 但不论如何，从这份数据来看，美俄的“核家底”相差无几，美国已经没有资格再在俄罗斯面前“耀武扬威”了。 2，正如海腾所言，在核力量现代化方面，俄罗斯确实要强过美国。 其中，就拿如今最受关注的高超音速导弹来说，俄罗斯手里已经有了“匕首、锆石”ç­‰4款导弹，而美国却一款也没有，前不久进行试射时，还连续2次以失败告终。 要注意，核弹头的数量多寡，固然是一种战略威慑，但具不具备将核弹头送到对方境内的能力，才是关键。就目前来看，俄方在这方面的造诣与能力，显然要超过美国。 在这样的情况下，五角大楼自然不愿主动招惹俄罗斯。 3，除了固有的核战略威慑之外，俄方近期还在不断地向西方释放核威慑信号。 例如，12日，俄北方舰队在北极举行大规模演习期间，俄“奥廖尔”号核潜艇突然发射了一枚“花岗岩”反舰导弹，对千里之外的目标实施了打击。 要注意，“花岗岩”导弹可搭载核弹头，是俄方“压箱底”的导弹之一，一般情况不会拿出来。 此外，前不久，俄两艘核潜艇在北极同时破冰，“海燕”核动力巡航导弹进驻北极等等，都是俄方对美国释放强烈、明显核威慑信号的体现。 更要注意，俄方将“亮剑”地点选在北极地区，不是没有原因的。 北极既是美俄欧争相关注的热点地区，同样也是美欧等国的“后脑勺”。一旦美欧有所动作，具备在北极发射核弹能力的俄罗斯，能第一时间打击到美欧本土。 不要忘了，“海燕”核动力巡航导弹，在理论上是具备高速、长距离、长时间飞行能力的。 至于为什么是理论上？因为迄今为止，俄方还没有用“海燕”进行过“超视距打击”。要是美欧不信邪、偏要挑衅俄方，估计普京不会介意让其帮忙测试“海燕”的性能。 此外，最重要的一点，俄方前不久已经在靠近欧洲的新地岛开展“非核试验”了，目的就是确保手里的数千枚核弹头质量无忧，能做到“随取随用”。 不得不说，从俄方近期释放的核威慑信号来看，确实不像是和美国闹着玩的。 也难怪，作为五角大楼二把手的海腾将军，会发出“不希望与俄开战”的表态。 4，在核战略方面，俄罗斯不仅拥有了“锋利的矛”，还即将拥有“坚实的盾”。 据俄国防部透露的消息来看，俄最新型的防空系统S-500已经快要面世了，它除了具备且强化了S-400的能力之外，还拥有拦截高超音速导弹的能力。 这意味着，一旦美俄发生冲突，连高超音速导弹都没有的美国，将很难打到俄方境内，战局将在顷刻间发生逆转。 不得不说，俄方先是拿出了4款高超音速导弹，而后还要掏出一个S-500，这让美国情何以堪？ 也难怪海腾会抱怨美国军备研发速度“慢得出奇”，这就应了那句话——人比人、气死人。 5，正如海腾所言，美俄发生冲突的后果，是双方、乃至全世界都无法承受的。 毕竟，作为世界上的拥核大国，美俄任何一方拥有的核弹头，其实都具备“打没对方、乃至整个世界”的能力。 这样的后果，双方谁也承担不了，而最为“惜命”的美国，更是不得不斟酌再三，将“避免与俄发生冲突”视为最大的战略成就。 最后，还是不免感慨几句。 这确实是一个不太平的世界，也确实是一个充满了争斗与博弈的世界，但过去的2次世界大战，已经向世人证明了——冲突与战火只会带来无尽伤痛、望不到头的残垣断壁。 还是希望世界各国能珍惜眼前这份来之不易的和平，将冲突转化为良性竞争、促进共同发展，走向更美好的未来。 此外，这也说明了一点——不论何时何地，自身强大的实力永远是捍卫本国利益的第一要素，过去的种种也告诉了我们，落后就会挨打。 因此，在世界迎来百年未有之大变局的背景下，我们更应该居安思危、努力奋斗，积极发展国防、经济实力，捍卫眼前这份得来不易的和平与安宁。 继续砥砺前行吧！相信在前方，必定会有更美好的风景在等着我们！<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Putin-i-Biden_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7718,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2020\/11\/02\/%e6%8c%91%e6%88%b0%e6%99%ae%e4%ba%ac%e5%ba%95%e7%b7%9a%ef%bc%9f%e4%bf%84%e7%be%85%e6%96%af%e5%93%a8%e6%89%80%e7%aa%81%e9%81%ad%e8%bd%9f%e7%82%b8%ef%bc%8c%e5%b9%95%e5%be%8c%e9%bb%91%e6%89%8b%e6%88%96\/","url_meta":{"origin":29149,"position":0},"title":"\u6311\u6230\u666e\u4eac\u5e95\u7dda\uff1f\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u54e8\u6240\u7a81\u906d\u8f5f\u70b8\uff0c\u5e55\u5f8c\u9ed1\u624b\u6216\u8207\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6709\u95dc","date":"November 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