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9\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u5728\u5173\u6ce8\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u5c40\u52bf\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f05\u7538\uff0c\u4f20\u6765\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u8fb9\u7ad9\u3001\u4e3a\u6602\u5c71\u7d20\u5b63\u652f\u6301\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u519b\u4e8b\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u7f05\u7538\u6ca1\u51c6\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u6216\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u5927\u81f4\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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9\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u6c89\u6dc0\u5df2\u4e45\u7684\u4e34\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f05\u7538\u519b\u65b9\u5ba3\u6218\u3002\u7f05\u7538\u4e34\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f05\u7538\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u7d27\u6025\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u6c11\u56fd\u9632\u519b\u201d\u5c06\u8fdb\u653b\u7f05\u7538\u519b\u65b9\uff0c\u547c\u5401\u7f05\u7538\u6c11\u4f17\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u522b\u8f7b\u6613\u5916\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u7ec6\u8282\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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2,511暴风雨正在加速到来。 9月7日，当世界都在关注阿富汗局势之际，亚洲另一个国家缅甸，传来了令人不安的消息。越来越多的迹象表明，如果美国选边站、为昂山素季支持者提供军事支持，缅甸没准就会成为下一个阿富汗或叙利亚。 具体情况大致是这样的。 第一，缅甸军方逮捕昂山素季后，民盟及昂山素季支持者，在缅甸各地举行了声势浩大的抗议游行，但没有撼动缅甸军方。 第二，与呼吁缅甸各方“坐下来谈”的亚洲国家不同，美英法德澳等西方国家，纷纷选边支持昂山素季、谴责缅甸军方。3月31日，美国宣布，美国外交官及其家属，必须立刻离开缅甸，随后多国纷纷从缅甸撤离人员。 以美国为首的西方国家，明确告诉缅甸军方，必须释放昂山素季，如若不然，西方就会让缅甸军方知道什么叫“得不偿失”。 第三，缅甸军方没有妥协。很快，美国欧盟就对缅甸军方发起了制裁，在当时，五角大楼接收了新导弹，莫里森临阵换帅、提名鹰派达顿为新澳大利亚国防长。此外，美欧澳大利亚还在缅甸家门口举行了联合军演。 就在世界以为“美国即将出兵缅甸”时，拜登选择了就此罢休。 第四，抗议游行失败之后，缅甸民盟与昂山素季支持者，选择了组建临时政府与“人民国防军”的方式，去和缅甸军方分庭抗礼。 除了呼吁缅甸民众加入外，临时政府还与克钦独立军、果敢等缅甸武装，加强了对话，且获得了很多缅甸武装支持。 第五，不久前，美国务卿布林肯再次表示，世界各国应该携手针对缅甸军方，并让缅甸民盟重新执掌缅甸。 9月7日，沉淀已久的临时政府，选择了对缅甸军方宣战。缅甸临时政府表示，缅甸将进入紧急状态，在此期间，各地的“人民国防军”将进攻缅甸军方，呼吁缅甸民众接下来别轻易外出。 此外，临时政府还请求缅甸武装、边防部队和民兵组织联手出招，以彻底“剿灭”缅甸军队。 随后，临时政府控制的三个军事基地，很快就出动了战机，而且地面部队也在行动。作为回应，缅甸军方立刻调兵遣将，缅甸内战随时都可能爆发。 不得不提的是，在缅甸临时政府发表声明之前，缅甸武装已经和缅甸军方打了起来。 这是昂山素季被捕、缅甸冲突升级以来，缅甸局势最混乱的时间段，稍有不慎，缅甸就会陷入内战。 至少有三个细节值得注意。 首先，论实力，临时政府与缅甸军方相差甚远，缅甸人口只有5000多万，但缅甸军队人数却超过了50万，而且还拥有大批俄式装备。 因此，在没有外援支持的情况下，一旦战斗打响，缅甸“人民国防军”面临的困境，就和之前阿富汗的北方联盟一样，想扭转局势非常难。 其次，最大的不确定因素在于，美英法德澳有着什么举动。冲突升级后，美国一直都在支持昂山素季，且各大缅甸武装对缅甸军方并不友好。因此，如果美国趁乱介入冲突，向缅甸“人民国防军”提供武器、情报支持，谁输谁赢，真的不好说。 一方面，昂山素季拥有大量支持者，所以缅甸“人民国防军”招募士兵不会太难，而缅甸军方拥有的装备，与美国欧盟肯定存在巨大差距。另一方面，在美国坚持重返亚太的情况下，不排除美国直接出兵缅甸的可能。 说到底，联合国是谴责缅甸军方的，且在施压缅甸军方这件事上，美英法德采取的是“整齐划一”的姿态。换句话说，如果拜登决定出兵缅甸，获得国会批准不会那么难。 还有就是，美国一直都想在东南亚打开缺口，以更好地合围对手，但越南却不领情。在这种情况下，拜登转变战略、退而求其次控制缅甸，对美国而言不失为好选择。 一旦美国掌控缅甸局势，比如扶持亲美势力执掌缅甸、在缅甸建立军事基地，拜登很快就能施压越南。等到那时，美国在东南亚站稳跟脚将变得更容易。 缅甸冲突由来已久且非常复杂，如果美国真打算煽风点火坐收渔利，的确不难。问题在于，美国到底有没有介入冲突、扶持亲美势力的意图。 至于拜登有何布局，普京是否能阻止这一切，谁也不知道，且看美国接下来怎么出招吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/download_\u526f\u672c-34.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":26627,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/08\/15\/%e4%b8%80%e5%88%87%e9%83%bd%e8%81%bd%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e7%9a%84%ef%bc%81%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e4%bb%a3%e8%a1%a8%e8%a8%aa%e8%8f%af%e5%be%8c%ef%bc%8c%e9%98%bf%e5%af%8c%e6%b1%97\/","url_meta":{"origin":29141,"position":0},"title":"\u201c\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u807d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\uff01\u201d\u5854\u5229\u73ed\u4ee3\u8868\u8a2a\u83ef\u5f8c\uff0c\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u653f\u5e9c\u5411\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u8868\u793a","date":"August 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