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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2,626今年6月以来，德尔塔毒株击穿了东南亚国家的防疫线，印尼、泰国、越南、马来西亚等国新增确诊病例大幅攀升，屡创纪录。为了遏制德尔塔的加速传播，东南亚经济体采取了封锁措施，工厂停产，商店关门，经济活动几乎停摆。但封锁一段时间后，这些国家快撑不住了，开始冒险“解禁”…… 这个夏天，东南亚地区疫情肆虐：印尼成为亚洲疫情新“震中”，单日死亡病例一度刷新全球最高纪录；去年被称为“东南亚抗疫优等生”的越南没能抵挡住德尔塔毒株的入侵，每日新增病例连续16天破四位数；泰国、新加坡和马来西亚等国也在和德尔塔作斗争，但还是迎来了疫情的新高峰。 在此情形下，6月底，马来西亚宣布无限期“封国”，芯片厂全部停工，这将导致全球芯片荒愈演愈烈。毕竟，马来西亚封测产能占全球总产能的13％，是全球半导体产品第七大出口国。目前英特尔、意法半导体、德州仪器等50家国际半导体制造商，都在当地设厂。 7月开始，越南河内和胡志明等重要城市也实施了“封城”，绝大多数行业都陷入停摆的状态，耐克、阿迪达斯等跨国公司在当地的代工厂基本停工。越南纺织服装协会表示，这一轮疫情严重冲击越南服装业，据其预计，最乐观的情况下，今年越南服装出口额至多是330亿美元，低于此前390亿美元的目标。 8月菲律宾部分地区采取了为期两周的封锁措施，每周经济损失预计达1500亿比索（约合194亿元人民币）。以旅游业为支柱产业的泰国也将高危地区的封锁时间延长到8月底等等。 如此一来，东南亚国家最新交出的成绩单都“惨不忍睹”，越南、泰国、菲律宾、缅甸、马来西亚、印尼8月制造业PMI全部跌破50的枯荣线，例如，越南PMI连续三个月下降至40.2，菲律宾跌至46.4，为2020å¹´5月来低位等等。 甚至高盛7月的一份报告便下调了东南亚五国经济预期：将马来西亚今年的GDP增速预期下调至4.9%，印尼下调至3.4％，菲律宾下调至4.4%，泰国下调至1.4％。抗疫形势较好的新加坡则降至6.8％。 意识到封锁措施的代价是经济滑坡之后，东南亚国家决定“负重前行”，冒险解封，开放经济。 9月13日，印尼宣布将巴厘岛限制级别调降为三级；泰国积极开放旅游业，从10月1日起，接种疫苗的旅客可以前往曼谷、清迈和芭堤雅等旅游胜地；越南从本月中旬开始逐步解封，不再执着于清零病毒，而是和病毒共存；马来西亚也慢慢放宽防疫措施，还决定推动“旅游泡泡”…… 分析指出，东南亚国家采取封锁措施，势必影响经济增长，但放弃封锁，重新开放经济，又意味着要承受更大的风险。目前东南亚国家接种率远远落在发达国家后头，例如，印尼和菲律宾仅有10％左右的人口接种疫苗，而越南接种率不到2％。 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