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2,594近段时间，各国的二季度经济数据相继出炉，有喜有忧。近一年来，一直处于贸易争端中的澳大利亚，同比去年实现了9.6%çš„GDP增长。而看到经济数据不错，澳洲政客又蠢蠢欲动了。近日，澳洲国库部长弗莱登伯格发表了演讲，宣称中国对澳大利亚的经济影响低于预期，甚至直接下达了脱钩“宣战书”。 当地时间9月6日，弗莱登伯格在澳洲国立大学发表演讲，对澳大利亚的“经济韧性”提出了赞扬。在截至6月份的三个月中，澳洲对华出口减少了54亿澳元，但对其他市场的出口增加了44亿澳元，差别很小。 部长认为，澳大利亚的经济并不脆弱，而中国并没有澳洲人想象得那么重要。他敦促澳大利亚尽快为中澳关系的持续紧张做准备，采取一种名为“中国+”的多元化市场策略，减少对中国的依赖。 紧接着，部长又提到所谓的“经济胁迫”。认为中国现在是全球130个国家的最大贸易伙伴，中国的强势崛起、自信和一体化令澳洲人不安。澳洲正在被中国的经济和发展成就所“定义”。澳洲感觉到了“政治压力”。 弗赖登伯格的演讲，是近期澳官员有关中国政策“最直接”的演讲。弗莱登伯格部长实际上是澳洲政府的首席经济学家，也是所谓的“鹰派部长”。作为专业人士，部长狠话说尽，看似是对澳大利亚经济底气十足，但实际上，澳洲经济已经亮起红灯。 从去年开始，中国就对澳大利亚的挑衅行为作出回应。因此澳洲产的葡萄酒、海鲜、大麦等产品从去年开始遭到了中国的反制，效果立竿见影。从去年到今年，澳洲不少行业遭受打击，导致供应商怨言不断，这都是看得见的。 虽然第二季度澳洲经济增长看上去不错，接近10%的增长。但是不要忘记，这是在去年同期严格封锁经济一潭死水的基础上得出的数字，毫无参考价值。实际上，专家们对澳洲经济萧条的预期依然没有改变。 近日澳洲工党议员查莫斯表示，今年第二季度的增长，是在悉尼和墨尔本两大城市封锁之前统计的，可想而知接下来的第三季度会多么惨。分析人士预计，澳大利亚第三季度的GDP由下降2.75%变为预期下跌4.25%，可以说是相当悲观了。 出口减少，特别是对华出口乏力正成为澳大利亚的一大困扰。虽然目前的出口额没有过大的落差，但因为今年的大宗商品价格非常高，即便出口量不高，也能实现较大的出口金额。然而大宗商品价格绝非某些个国家可以完全操弄，澳大利亚想要保持目前的出口增长，还想要脱钩，只能祈祷明年大宗商品的价格不要出现波动。 而今年下半年以来，一直被认为是澳大利亚经济压舱石的铁矿石价格暴跌，为澳大利亚敲响了警钟。铁矿石的价格从最高峰的233美元一吨，降至130美元，短短几个月已经跌去了40%。 目前中国已经实行了两个月的钢铁限产，已经不再需要那么多铁矿石。而铁矿石的价格还在一路下坠，预计到明年三月底时，价格将回落到每吨55美元。 中国市场无可替代。澳洲经济的黄金十年本身就与中国息息相关，澳洲作为一个售卖农产品和初级资源商品的发达国家，不仅在中国经济腾飞中享受了红利，还得以在金融危机中幸存。而在目前疫情笼罩的世界中，除了中国这个火车头，谁还能带动澳洲呢？ 专家表示澳洲部长的言论是对中澳关系的严重误判，除了情绪煽动完全没有任何理性的地方，是无知和疯狂的。这些人的主张已经严重脱离澳洲民众和商界的利益。 如今，澳洲需要思考的不是如何寻找新市场或者叫嚣脱钩，而是怎样跟中国合作，重回中国市场。虽然澳洲政府一味跟着美国走，但识时务者为俊杰，目前的美国自身难保，如果澳洲人还在执迷不悟，不愿意回归理性对华政策中，那就必然会承担无知与疯狂的代价。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/1576396302-cropped-Josh-Frydenberg-April-budget-960x600_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C382","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":28923,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/09\/13\/%e6%be%b3%e6%96%b9%e6%90%8d%e5%a4%b1%e4%b8%8d%e8%b6%b350%e5%84%84%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e9%83%a8%e9%95%b7%ef%bc%9a%e6%a0%b9%e6%9c%ac%e4%b8%8d%e6%80%95%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%88%b6%e8%a3%81\/","url_meta":{"origin":28547,"position":0},"title":"\u6fb3\u65b9\u640d\u5931\u4e0d\u8db350\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6fb3\u90e8\u9577\uff1a\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u6015\u4e2d\u570b\u5236\u88c1","date":"September 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