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2,581自从特朗普主动挑起中美贸易争端起已经过去23个月，美国在很长一段时间内都对彻底解决问题表现得“兴致不高”。结果争端迟迟得不到缓解，美国对华加征关税总额也达到977亿美元。然而，丰硕的“成果”并没有让美国“稳坐钓鱼台”，其国内各界要求重启与中国贸易谈判的呼声越来越高。来自美国零售商、芯片制造商、农民等近36个最具影响力的商业团体已经联名呼吁美国政府重启对华谈判并削减进口关税，以免拖累美国经济。就连美国财政部长耶伦在接受公开采访时也承认，对中国商品征收关税伤害美国消费者。相反，本应受到“制裁”的中国却始终保持足够定力。 造成这种“奇景”的根本原因在于，随着经济形势变化，美国对华加征关税不仅没有起到“制裁”中国目的，反而使自身负担趋于加重。虽然理论上中美双方共同承载关税引发的成本，但受到疫情和时间因素影响，美国承担比例不断增加。以中国商品到岸价（美元计价）为参照，至2021å¹´3月，中美所承担关税成本分配比例分别为53%å’Œ47%，中间差距不断缩小。更为重要的是，美国正在滥发美元，这导致人民币相对走强，而以美元计价的中国商品到岸价则持续上涨。最终，这些溢出的价格都会转嫁到美国消费者身上。此外，若是美国继续滥发美元的政策，中美关税成本负担比差距会进一步缩小，甚至逆转，这对经济形势非常严峻的美国而言显然不是好消息。 面对这种情况，中国自然充满耐心。当美国常务副国务卿舍曼访华时，中国非常明确向美国开出一份改进清单，必须将一系列美国制造的障碍除去才能重启中美贸易谈判。由于美国方面迟迟没有回应，双方僵持局面只能继续，可与美国的急躁不同，中国始终保持着耐心。 不可否认，在中美贸易争端中，中国决非没有损失，而且就理论上关税成本负担比例而言，中国也是长期高于美国。但中国有着保持耐心的本钱，有信心和美国“干耗”下去。 首先，中国是少数疫情后恢复生产的国家。受疫情防控措施影响，很多国家纷纷停止本国生产，导致国际市场出现多类商品供不应求的形势，特别是很多消耗量极大的商品，如部分高端工业产品零部件和日用工业产品。多年来，美国之所以能在本土中低端制造业严重萎缩情况下依旧于国际经济体系中占据优势地位，很重要一点就是凭借本土发达的高端制造业获取垄断性利润，并借助种种国际规则压低中低端工业产品进口价格，从中获取剪刀差。然而，打压中低端工业产品价格的基础之一是全球拥有多个可替代性生产者。在疫情冲击下，中国成为很多中低端工业产品唯一供应者，美国没有其他选择，继续维持中美贸易僵局只会让美国消费者承担更多压力，主动权在中国。 其次，美国不是中国唯一出口市场。不可否认，即使受贸易争端影响，中美贸易总额呈现下降趋势，美国依旧是中国重要贸易伙伴。但和改革开发初期不同，如今的中国产品畅销世界，特别是很多受疫情影响生产停滞的国家，更乐于大量进口物美价廉的中国产品。美国市场纵然重要却不是不可替代，从美国市场退出的大量商品完全可以被其他市场消化，所以美国的所谓“关税制裁”更多是增加中国进一步开拓海外市场的动力而已。 再次，中国对美国高端工业制成品依赖程度下降。很长一段时间内，中美的经济关系都被描绘成“互补关系”，即美国向中国输出高端工业产品，中国向美国输出中低端工业产品。但近年来，这种模式已经逐渐被打破，中国正不断向全球产业链高端进发，许多高新技术产品不但能满足本国需求还能进军国际市场。在中美贸易争端过程中，中国有能力按照国际通行“对等报复”原则对美国输华商品加征同等关税而不用担心缺少美国相关高端产品供应造成国内市场受挫，这也是中国敢于承受中美贸易争端长期化的底气之一。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/shutterstock_1130607758-scaled-847x560-c_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C385","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":26155,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/08\/08\/%e8%bc%b8%e5%85%a9%e6%ac%a1%ef%bc%81%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e8%b2%bf%e6%98%93%e6%88%b0%e5%87%ba%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e6%b2%92%e6%96%99%e5%88%b0%e4%b8%89%e9%bb%9e%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b\/","url_meta":{"origin":27419,"position":0},"title":"\u8f38\u5169\u6b21\uff01\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u51fa\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u7f8e\u6c92\u6599\u5230\u4e09\u9ede\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u6703\u4efb\u5176\u7d50\u675f\uff1f","date":"August 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\u00e6\u00ae\u00e3€Š\u00e7\u00ba\u00bd\u00e7\u00ba\u00a6\u00e6—\u00b6\u00e6Š\u00a5\u00e3€‹9\u00e6œˆ1\u00e6—\u00a5\u00e6Š\u00a5\u00e9“\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e7\u00beŽ\u00e5›\u00bd\u00e5•†\u00e7•Œ\u00e5‘\u00bc\u00e5\u00e7™\u00bd\u00e5\u00ae\u00ab\u00e9™\u00e4\u00bdŽ\u00e5\u00af\u00b9\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e5›\u00bd\u00e5•†\u00e5“\u00e7š„\u00e5…\u00b3\u00e7\u00a8Ž\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e5\u00b9\u00b6\u00e5‡\u00ba\u00e5\u00b0\u00e6\u00b8…\u00e6™\u00b0\u00e7š„\u00e5\u00af\u00b9\u00e5Ž\u00e8\u00b4\u00b8\u00e6˜“\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e7\u00ad–\u00e3€‚ \u201c\u00e5•†\u00e7•Œ\u00e5\u00af\u00b9\u00e7\u00bc\u00ba\u00e4\u00b9\u00e5…\u00b7\u00e4\u00bd“\u00e7š„\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e5›\u00bd\u00e7\u00bb\u00e6\u00b5Ž\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e7\u00ad–\u00e6„Ÿ\u00e5ˆ\u00b0\u00e6\u00b2\u00ae\u00e4\u00b8\u00a7\u00e3€‚\u201d\u00e7\u00beŽ\u00e5›\u00bd\u00e5•†\u00e4\u00bcš (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) 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