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2,320英國著名媒體《金融時報》在當地時間三月七日報導，美國總統拜登將在下周召開所謂的「四國領導人峰會」，這場會議將集結美國、澳大利亞、日本和印度四個國家的首腦一起商討如何應對中國在印度洋-太平洋地區日益增強的影響力。這場即將召開的會議被認為是今年年初美、印、日、澳四國外長會議的延續和加強。不過據消息人士透露，印度總理莫迪有可能拒絕參加本次會議，並拒絕和美國、日本、澳大利亞就遏制中國問題而加深軍事合作。 《金融時報》認為，這種猜測並非空穴來風，因為至今莫迪仍未對該會議做出任何回應，其社交媒體帳號等平台上也從未提及該會議。而現在澳大利亞總理莫里森、美國總統拜登和日本首相菅義偉已經公開表態將參與該會議，只有莫迪仍不為所動，這一舉動非常反常。結合最近印度軍方的一系列行動，多家外媒預測印度將有可能拒絕參加這次針對中國的會議。 印度本地媒體《印度時報》也認為，印度或許已經對「四國同盟」機制轉變了看法，印度政府可能認為夥同美國一起反華並不能給印度帶來太多的實際利益，因此對整個美國的戰略的積極性大打折扣。印度如果真的拒絕參加這次反華同盟，雖在預料之外，但實在情理之中。 首先對於莫迪來說，儘管印度國內極端民族主義思想盛行，但是作為一國首腦的莫迪，必然是對印軍的戰鬥力有比較清醒的認識的。一旦中印爆發全面戰爭，印軍斷無可能獲得勝利，這也是莫迪雖然狠話放盡，但遲遲不願真的發動戰爭的原因。印度既打不過中國，又和中國接壤。一旦「四國同盟「激怒中國，印度必然會被美國推到第一線，因此莫迪不願意犧牲自己國家的利益去給美國做嫁衣。 第二，印度現在的國內局勢決定了印度缺乏繼續實施反華政策的能力。最近印度國內局勢風雨飄搖，前有新冠肺炎疫情肆虐，數千萬人感染，數十萬人死亡，而且新冠肺炎疫情帶來了經濟大倒退。接著印度農民因反對新版《農業法》，紛紛湧入新德里組織抗議活動。雖說挑釁外國可以增強國內凝聚力、轉移國內視線和矛盾，但是其實這招莫迪早就用過了，如今印度局勢風雨飄搖就足以證明該政策已經完全破產了。因此莫迪政府必須將注意力轉移到國內來了。 莫迪作為一名優秀的政治家，必然會從國內的實際情況出發來權衡外交政策。圍堵中國對於印度，帶來的只有傷害。舉一個最簡單的例子，即使2020年中印關係出現波折，並且新冠疫情在全球肆虐，但中印之間的貿易往來數據依舊亮眼。據印度媒體披露，2020年中國與印度的雙向貿易額為777億美元，雖然低於前一年的855億美元，但中國還是取代了美國，成為印度最大的貿易夥伴。在疫情肆虐和雙邊關係緊張的前提下，中國都可以取代美國，足可看出中印貿易的緊密性。並且據印度媒體披露，過去幾周印度政府開始解除對中企投資的部分限制，並且相關的審批工作已經啟動。從實際利益出發，從未來發展方向考量，印度沒有理由和中國疏遠。 和美國走得近，帶給印度的可能是戰爭與爭端，和中國走得近，帶給印度的是實實在在的利益。中印兩國市場潛力巨大，中印交惡只會讓美國坐收漁翁之利。如果前期莫迪當局對於美國還心存幻想，那麼在中印兩軍脫離接觸後，美國的翻臉行為足可以讓印度看清拜登等美國政客的險惡用心。據《印度斯坦時報》三月三日的報導稱，美國的人權監督機構「自由之家」發布了其「年度各國人權報告」，該《報告》在談及印度時言辭尖銳，稱莫迪政府對印度的農民示威採取了「強力的鎮壓」、在處理疫情時採取了「無恥的封鎖」和「讓穆斯林成為疫情的替罪羊」等政策，因此「自由之家」將印度的人權等級從「自由」級別下調到了「部分自由」。雖然「自由之家」是一個非官方的人權監督組織，但實際上常年接受美國政府的資助。可以說，「自由之家」雖然不是美國政府的正式機構，但絕對是美國政府的重要喉舌之一，其發言可以在很大程度上代表美國政府的官方意見。 利用人權武器，美國已經開始敲打印度。在中美之間，印度該如何抉擇，相信莫迪已經有了答案。當然，以上不過推測而已，雖然與中國交好是最符合印度國家利益的外交選擇，但是現在的印度一方面受限於強大的政策慣性，一方面被國內洶湧的極端民族主義思想綁架（在中印軍隊脫離接觸時，就已經出現不少唾罵莫迪是「賣國賊」的聲音），同時還有美國興風作浪，莫迪政府能否撥開重重迷霧，選擇最正確的道路，這仍需要時間告訴我們答案。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14282,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/84cdd3e7fb144ae8bb8707ad15128630_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C382","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":28795,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/09\/11\/%e4%b8%ad%e4%bf%84%e6%a3%84%e6%ac%8a%ef%bc%8c%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e6%ac%a3%e5%96%9c%e8%8b%a5%e7%8b%82%ef%bc%81%e8%8e%ab%e8%bf%aa%e5%89%8d%e5%be%80%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e9%82%80%e5%8a%9f%ef%bc%8c%e7%ac%ac\/","url_meta":{"origin":14276,"position":0},"title":"\u4e2d\u4fc4\u68c4\u6b0a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6b23\u559c\u82e5\u72c2\uff01\u83ab\u8fea\u524d\u5f80\u7f8e\u570b\u9080\u529f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ed79\u5929\u5f8c\u6253\u97ff","date":"September 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