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\u6211\u56fd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5927\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\uff01\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u67d0\u5c9b\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u89e6\u78b0\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u7ebf\uff0c\u8d38\u7136\u89e6\u78b0\u9ad8\u538b\u7ebf\u7b49\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6076\u65e0\u679c\uff01\u8d38\u7136\u4ea4\u6076\u540e\u679c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u800c\u4e14\u4e3a\u4f55\u8981\u5e72\u6d89\u4ed6\u56fd\u5185\u653f\uff1f\u56e0\u6b64\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u67d0\u5c9b\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5185\u653f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u4f1a\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n

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2,604对于美国而言，美国最希望的自然是星条旗永不落，然而对于美国而言，某岛问题已经让美国骑虎难下。如果某岛回归就意味着美国的封锁战略彻底解体，太平洋不再是美国之洋，但是如果战争爆发，会有几个国家站在美国一边呢？某一个人或者说某一群人说的话都是难以作数的，想要得出准确率较高的结论有且只有进行广泛的调查与分析，兰德公司这样做了，近期兰德公司提出了关于某岛问题的最新报告。 咱知道在座的各位不可能人人都是英语四级以上（考虑到专业术语，四级都不够），所以盘子氪了WPS的会员，结合大量实际调查得出了美国盟友对地区战争的反应并且回答了谁会站队美国的问题。 骑虎难下的美国盟友，不愿交恶我国 我国是全球第一大进出口国！是大量国家的最大的贸易伙伴，而对于我国而言，某岛问题是不允许触碰的高压线，贸然触碰高压线等于交恶无果！贸然交恶后果是什么？而且为何要干涉他国内政？因此兰德公司认为：大多数国家看法是某岛问题是中国的内政问题，并没有跟他们有直接的利益关系。 在这方面怎么说呢，有句俗话叫做县官不如现管，国际上也是如此，美国确实是全世界最为强大的国家，美国确实也在不遗余力的拉拢周边各国，然而，距离是个很严肃的问题，够不着美国还够不着你么？不说别的，渔民出海打渔就喜提洗衣粉谁扛得住？至于军事对抗？孩子醒醒！别说能不能对抗海军了，就是能不能对抗海警那都是个问题，要知道2901,818,718可都是军舰的基础上做减法的，自带76炮的那种！ 更何况周边各国是觉得自己家里太安稳么？贸然插手某岛局势，后果能且只能是自家的分裂势力势力暴涨，再加上，当今时代冲突的实质是利益的冲突！要跟中国大动干戈亏得慌啊。 因此兰德公司也提出了：这些国家也会因为中国经济、军事压力而不得不选择中立的立场。 在经济以及军事的两大因素的影响之下，别说东盟国家了，就是与美国关系良好的韩国也不愿意插手某岛问题。所以兰德公司认为能够帮助美国的国际而且能够在战争中起到一定效果的国家只有两个那就是日本于澳大利亚。 为何兰德公司认为只有日本与澳大利亚会站队美国？ 以下的兰德公司认为日本会支持美国的理由。 可以概括一下，关系不咋地，而且中日存在领土争端，处理完某岛就该处理日本了，而且某岛收复之后日本的战略环境将会进一步恶化，也就是说可以换一个理解角度，那就是日本是在帮助自己。 然而对于日本而言，火中取栗是否值得？一旦日本插手就意味着两者的关系转为敌对，可以说就是赌国运行为，而且考虑到地区可调动军事实力的对比，美国有多大决心?日本会不会转手被美国给卖了？要知道日本可是世界第三大经济体，老大和老二冲突老三没了的案例可是很多的！并且一旦冲突爆发，日本将会失去重要的商品来源与市场，经济上是否划算？ 因此兰德公司也提出了，日本应当是以撤侨这种完全正当且合理的名义介入冲突。 至于兰德公司对澳大利亚的判断，盘子认为很是正确，毕竟澳大利亚那是真正的美国的马前卒，越战的时候，澳大利亚为了彰显澳大利亚紧跟美国的立场，将已经退役了的悉尼号航母改为了悉尼号快速运输船以帮助美国，国际事务上也是处处以美国唯首是瞻，再加上澳大利亚同属五眼联盟之一，澳大利亚站队美国的几率是很高的。 然而如果死保没保住，美国的亚太战略立马碎成渣，如果不出兵，亚太战略碎得更加彻底，然而美国有把握说一定能够取得亚太冲突的主动权吗？美国虽强，全球战略也牵制了美国大量的精力，能够随时调动的舰艇有几艘？而我国的军事实力飞速发展，届时亚太地区美国有优势么？ 所以兰德公司认为，就这么模糊着吧，千万别直接站队，毕竟现在的造舰效率已经很吓人了，万一双造船厂共同开工航母那就不是吓人不吓人的问题了。 小结，战争永远是最为糟糕的选择 战争是什么是最为直接与最为有效地解决争端的方式，然而战争也是潘多拉的魔盒，在外国人眼中是这么一回事，你能向自己属于同一民族的地区分裂势力发动战争，那么对与你存在领土冲突的国家发动战争的心理负担不是更小么？ 所以有选择的话，还是用和平手段解决冲突吧。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13544,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/8617bf367c9640b1bd51fe7dcabf858b_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24109,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/07\/15\/%e5%83%85%e6%86%91%e4%b8%80%e9%bb%9e%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%8d%e6%95%a2%e5%90%8c%e8%8f%af%e7%99%bc%e7%94%9f%e6%88%b0%e7%88%ad%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e8%98%ad%e5%be%b7%e6%99%ba%e5%ba%ab\/","url_meta":{"origin":13538,"position":0},"title":"\u50c5\u6191\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u4e0d\u6562\u540c\u83ef\u767c\u751f\u6230\u722d\uff1f\u7f8e\u862d\u5fb7\u667a\u5eab\u7d50\u8ad6\u5f15\u570b\u4eba\u71b1\u8b70\uff01","date":"July 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