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\u56f4\u7ed5\u8c03\u67e5\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u8d77\u6e90\u8fd9\u4e00\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u5c31\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u8bae\u9898\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5fd8\u8bb0\uff0c\u9690\u85cf\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8c03\u67e5\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u6d3b\u751f\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b64\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f8b\u786e\u8bca\u60a3\u8005\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u57282019\u5e7412\u67088\u65e5\u786e\u8bca\u611f\u67d3\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u7537\u5b50\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ed6\u5df2\u5eb7\u590d\u5982\u521d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4f4d\u5931\u53bb\u59bb\u5b50\u7684\u4e08\u592b\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u533b\u751f\u59bb\u5b50\u6b7b\u4e8e\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\uff0c\u7ed9\u4ed6\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7c\u5c0f\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u5728\u6b66\u6c49\u5404\u4e2a\u533b\u9662\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u66fe\u6cbb\u7597\u8fc7\u65e9\u671f\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u533b\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ca\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u7684\u906d\u9047\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u7779\u4e86\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u600e\u6837\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u521d\u8d77\u65f6\u5c31\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u5374\u5bf9\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u9014\u5f84\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u6cbb\u7597\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u53ca\u5176\u5a01\u529b\u5927\u5c0f\u77e5\u4e4b\u751a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6e90\u4e8e\u6b66\u6c49\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u53c2\u89c2\u4e86\u73b0\u5df2\u5173\u95ed\u7684\u6b66\u6c49\u6c34\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u8be5\u5e02\u573a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u3002\u8be5\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u644a\u4f4d\u66fe\u51fa\u552e\u8fc7\u201c\u517b\u6b96\u7684\u201d\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u7269\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u98df\u7269\u9972\u517b\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u7af9\u9f20\u3001\u679c\u5b50\u72f8\u548c\u9f2c\u737e\u3002\u4e5f\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u67d0\u4e9b\u517b\u6b96\u7684\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u611f\u67d3\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u95ed\u540e\uff0c\u88ab\u62bd\u6837\u68c0\u67e5\u7684\u52a8\u7269\u4ea7\u54c1\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4ef6\u88ab\u68c0\u6d4b\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u9633\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u7684174\u4f4d\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u5e76\u975e\u5168\u90fd\u53bb\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u90a3\u4f4d\u57282019\u5e7412\u6708\u6700\u65e9\u786e\u8bca\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u7537\u5b50\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u53bb\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u8c03\u67e5\u7ec4<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

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2,361【文\/多米尼克·å¾·æ€€å°” 译\/观察者网 由冠群】 就在我写这篇文章的时候，我刚从中国武汉回来，此时正住在悉尼一家酒店接受隔离检测。在武汉的时候，我的身份是国际卫生组织派往中国调查新冠病毒起源的澳大利亚籍代表。 围绕调查新冠病毒起源这一任务，人们已就其政治议题讨论了很多。所以人们很容易忘记，隐藏在这些调查背后的都是活生生的人。 作为此次调查任务的一个环节，我们见到了第一例确诊患者，一个在2019å¹´12月8日确诊感染新冠病毒的男子，目前他已康复如初。我们还见到了一位失去妻子的丈夫，他的医生妻子死于新冠肺炎，给他留下了一个幼小的孩子。我们见到了在武汉各个医院工作，曾治疗过早期新冠肺炎患者的医生，并了解到他们及其同事的遭遇。我们目睹了新冠疫情对许多个人和社区带来了怎样的冲击，他们在疫情初起时就受到了影响，而在当时我们却对病毒的性质和传播途径、如何治疗新冠肺炎及其威力大小知之甚少。 世卫组织专家抵达武汉调查新冠病毒起源 图片来源：视频截图 在访问中国执行世卫组织任务的四周里，我们与中国同行——科学家、流行病学家、医生——进行了交谈。我们每天和他们开会长达15个小时，所以我们成了同事，甚至是朋友。这让我们能够建立起对彼此的尊重和信任，这种尊重和信任可不是通过ZOOM视频聊天或电子邮件联系就能建立起来的。 以下就是我们所了解到的新冠病毒起源情况。 起源于动物，但却不一定源于武汉市场 这种病毒（现在被称为新冠病毒）于2019å¹´12月出现在中国中部城市武汉，引发了自1918-1919年大流感疫情之后最大规模的传染病疫情。 我们的调查结论是，这种病毒很可能起源于动物。它很可能最早出现在蝙蝠身上，之后通过一种未知的中间宿主，在一个未知的地点传染给了人类。这种“人畜感染”疾病以前就曾引发过疫情。但我们目前仍在努力还原引发此次疫情的准确事件链。对湖北省蝙蝠和全中国野生动物的抽样调查显示，迄今为止还没有在它们身上发现新冠病毒。 我们参观了现已关闭的武汉水产市场，在疫情爆发初期，该市场被认为是病毒的源头。该市场的一些摊位曾出售过“养殖的”野生动物。这些动物是作为食物饲养的，如竹鼠、果子狸和鼬獾。也有证据表明某些养殖的野生动物可能会感染新冠病毒。然而，在市场关闭后，被抽样检查的动物产品没有一件被检测出新冠病毒阳性。 我们还知道，最早的174位新冠病毒感染者并非全都去过市场，那位在2019å¹´12月最早确诊感染的男子就没有去过。 然而，当我们参观这个现已关闭的市场时，我们很容易就能看出病毒是如何在那里传播的。当年市场开放的时候，这个市场每天的来访人数大约在1万人左右，而且人与人亲密接触，现场通风和排湿条件都非常差。 在执行调查任务的过程中，我们找到了遗传学证据证明在该地曾出现过聚集性传播。出自该市场的几个病例显示患者所感染的病毒序列都是相同的，这表明该地曾出现过聚集性传播。然而，在其它病毒序列中却显示出了多样性，这意味着还有其它未知或未取样的传播链存在。 对从那时起至最近发现的新冠病毒原型进行模拟研究，得出的结论是这场疫情估计始发自11月中旬至12月初。也有出版物声称新冠病毒早在武汉出现第一例感染病例前就已在世界各国传播，然而这一说法还有待确认。 总而言之，武汉市场更像是一个使疫情大白于天下的场所，而不一定是真正的疫情始发地。所以我们需要去别处寻找病毒的源头。 不能排除冷冻或冷藏食品也是病毒传播的一环 此外还有“冷链”假说。该假说认为病毒是通过农耕、捕猎、加工、运输、食物冷藏或冷冻等环节传播的。那么这个传播病毒的食物是冰淇淋、鱼类还是野生动物肉呢？我们并不知道。现在还无法证实是某种食品最早触发了病毒的传播。但这种食物在多大程度上促进了病毒的传播呢？再说一次，我们不知道。 曾在武汉市场上出现的一些“冷链”产品并没有接受过病毒检测。对市场的环境采样显示该地曾出现过病毒表面污染现象。这可能表明新冠病毒是通过受感染的人或受污染的动物产品和“冷链”产品从外部引入的。有关“冷链”产品染上病毒和病毒在低温环境下的存活情况仍处于调查中。 病毒极不可能是从实验室泄漏的 我们考虑过的最具政治敏感性的病毒起源可能性就是病毒源自实验室泄漏。但我们得出结论，这种情况极不可能发生。 我们在中国参观了武汉病毒研究所，这是一处令人印象深刻的研究设施，鉴于该研究所人员的健康状况，该处设施看起来运行良好。 武汉病毒研究所外景 图片来源：视频截图 我们与该研究所的科学家进行了交谈。我们听说，这些科学家会被常规抽取和储存血液样本，以检测他们是否曾经被感染过。目前还没有找到新冠病毒抗体出现的证据。我们看到了他们的生物安全审计数据。没有发现证据。 我们看到了他们正在研究的最接近新冠病毒的病毒——RaTG13病毒，这种病毒是在中国南方的一些洞穴中发现的，有矿工曾在七年前死在这些洞穴中。 但科学家们所掌握的只是这种病毒的基因序列。他们还没能人为培养出这种病毒。虽然病毒确实能从实验室逃逸出来，但这种情况极为少见。因此，我们得出结论，这种情况在武汉发生的可能性极小。 调查组 当我说“我们”的时候，这意味着此次任务是由世卫组织和中国的健康委员会联合进行的一项特定活动。调查组中总共有17名中国专家和10名国际专家，再加上来自各个机构的7名其它专家和后勤人员。我们研究了临床流行病学（新冠肺炎如何在人群中传播）、分子流行病学（病毒的基因组成及其传播机理）以及动物和环境在病毒传播中扮演的角色。 仅临床流行病学小组就查阅了中国200多家医疗机构的76000例疑似新冠肺炎病例记录，如类流感疾病、肺炎和其它呼吸道疾病。他们没有发现明显证据证明，在第一例病例发现前的2019年下半年，武汉出现过新冠肺炎大爆发的情况。 下一步工作是什么？ 我们的中国之行只是任务的第一阶段。我们将在未来几周发表我们的官方报告。调查人员还将进一步搜集数据，以调查是否有证据证明早在2019年年初就有病毒在诸如欧洲这样的地方流传。调查人员将继续检测该地区的野生动物和其它动物是否有感染病毒的迹象。我们将继续总结经验，改进方法，以便更好地调查下一次疫情。 不管病毒源自何处，流行病学数据的点、序列和编号都起始于患病的个人。武汉人以及其它地方人所遭受到的长期生理和心理影响——悲剧和焦虑——将持续数十年。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/unnamed_\u526f\u672c.png?fit=700%2C384","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11842,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/02\/08\/%e4%b8%96%e8%a1%9b%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6%e5%9c%a8%e6%ad%a6%e6%bc%a2%e6%9c%aa%e6%89%be%e5%88%b0%e7%97%85%e6%af%92%e8%b5%b7%e6%ba%90%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%be%b7%e7%89%b9%e9%87%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%a0%a1\/","url_meta":{"origin":13279,"position":0},"title":"\u4e16\u885b\u5c08\u5bb6\u5728\u6b66\u6f22\u672a\u627e\u5230\u75c5\u6bd2\u8d77\u6e90\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5fb7\u7279\u91cc\u514b\u5821\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u61c9\u8a72\u958b\u653e\u4e86\uff1f","date":"February 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