2,493 緬甸發生的局勢現在正在朝出人意料的方向發展，就在昨天緬甸軍方突然襲擊的方式拘禁了緬甸總統溫敏，國務資政翁山蘇姬後，現在最新消息是他們已經被釋放，但依然被軟禁在內比都無法出來。而其他的政府高官則被扣押在內比都的一座旅店內。現在整個緬甸首都地區已經被掐斷了電話和網絡，緬甸軍方也表示已經成功接管了政權。現在大批緬甸士兵已經控制了各個交通要道。 緬甸多年來經過多輪的內部整合，在局勢相對穩定下為什麼會突發這種級別的動盪，很多人都覺得莫名其妙。其實早在很久以前，緬甸表面平靜的湖水下早已經是暗流涌動。在翁山蘇姬回國後，她的大緬甸民族主義思想十分濃重，這一點和軍方十分合拍。於是雙方一度達成了和解。但是後來雙方在很多地方上的矛盾就尖銳了起來，尤其是在對國家的控制上，翁山蘇姬的緬甸全國民主聯盟一直在緬甸政府中擴大勢力，現在已經直接動了軍方的勢力。另外還有一點就是，緬甸全國民主聯盟在民族問題上甚至比緬甸軍方更加激進，這直接讓緬甸軍方中的部分派別十分不滿。 最終在一系列的操作下，翁山蘇姬的緬甸全國民主聯盟在2020年的大選中獲得了83%的選票，已經超過了緬甸軍方給自己留下的25%席位的底線。這種壓倒性優勢讓緬甸軍方高度警覺，事實上在前不久，緬甸軍方已經對翁山蘇姬提出了警告，後來意識到危險的翁山蘇姬也在社交媒體上敦促緬甸民眾抗議「政變」。但是顯然，這些人手裡沒有槍桿子，根本無力阻擋軍方的政變行動。於是就在昨天，緬甸軍方在逮捕了緬甸全國民主聯盟主要領導人後，還搜查了他們的總部，連電腦和文件也被帶走。緬甸軍方控制權力機關後已經宣布，緬甸全國進入一年的緊急狀態，在這個時期內，由緬甸軍方對國家進行統一管理。有意思的是，緬甸軍方的政變理由是「依據憲法行事，為調查選舉舞弊而行動」。 發生這樣的事情，美國方面在第一時間就給予了關注，雖然嘴上喊得聲音挺響亮，但是一般都認為美國現在不可能去干涉緬甸的事情。原因也很簡單，第一，緬甸並沒有大量的石油資源，美國就算打進去也得不償失。第二，翁山蘇姬在上台後已經跟美國人鬧翻，美國人也不可能去救一個已經是敵人的政客。 現在來看，緬甸的局勢上翁山蘇姬一派已經徹底失勢。要麼他們靈活應變跟軍隊合作，出來組織個傀儡政府，要麼把牢底坐穿無出頭之日。當然，集體逃出國外當流亡政府也不是不可能。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11555,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/d5132943_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12963,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/02\/20\/%e7%bf%81%e5%b1%b1%e8%98%87%e5%a7%ac%e7%b5%82%e6%96%bc%e9%9c%b2%e9%9d%a2%ef%bc%81%e7%b7%ac%e7%94%b8%e8%bb%8d%e6%96%b9%e5%8f%88%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e5%a4%a7%e5%8b%95%e4%bd%9c%e4%be%86%e8%a5%b2%ef%bc%8c\/","url_meta":{"origin":11554,"position":0},"title":"\u7fc1\u5c71\u8607\u59ec\u7d42\u65bc\u9732\u9762\uff01\u7dec\u7538\u8ecd\u65b9\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u52d5\u4f5c\u4f86\u8972\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u9a5a\u52d5\u591a\u570b\u5a92\u9ad4","date":"February 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Relations)\u00e6\u00b1\u00e5—\u00e4\u00baž\u00e4\u00ba‹\u00e5‹™\u00e9\u00ab˜\u00e7\u00b4š\u00e7\u00a0”\u00e7\u00a9\u00b6\u00e5“\u00a1Josh Kurlantzick\u00e8\u00aa\u00aa\u00ef\u00bcš\u00e3€Œ\u00e4\u00b8€\u00e8ˆ\u00ac\u00e4\u00be†\u00e8\u00aa\u00aa\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e8\u00aeŠ\u00e5\u00af\u00e8ƒ\u00bd\u00e6œƒ\u00e5\u00bc•\u00e8\u00b5\u00b7\u00e7\u00b7\u00ac\u00e7”\u00b8\u00e7š„\u00e5‹•\u00e7›\u00aa\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e9€™\u00e4\u00b8\u00e6˜\u00af\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e5œ‹\u00e5–œ\u00e6\u00ad\u00a1\u00e7š„\u00e4\u00ba‹\u00e6ƒ…\u00e3€‚\u00e3€\u00e4\u00bb–\u00e8\u00aa\u00aa\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00b8\u00ad\u00e5œ‹\u00e6œ‰\u00e6›\u00b4\u00e5\u00a4š\u00e7š„\u00e7‰Œ\u00e5\u00af\u00e6‰“\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e3€Œ\u00e5\u00b0\u00b1\u00e6‹œ\u00e7™\u00bb\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e5\u00baœ\u00e8€Œ\u00e8\u00a8€\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e6ˆ‘\u00e8\u00aa\u00e7‚\u00ba\u00e4\u00bb–\u00e5€‘\u00e6\u00b2’\u00e6œ‰\u00e4\u00bb€\u00e9\u00ba\u00bc\u00e5\u00a5\u00bd\u00e7š„\u00e9\u00b8\u00e6“‡\u00e3€\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00b8\u00a6\u00e8\u00a1\u00a8\u00e7\u00a4\u00ba\u00e3€Œ\u00e7\u00beŽ\u00e5œ‹\u00e7š„\u00e6\u00b0‘\u00e4\u00b8\u00bb\u00e5…\u00ac\u00e4\u00bf\u00a1\u00e5Š›\u00e5\u00bd\u00a2\u00e8\u00b1\u00a1\u00e4\u00b8\u00e4\u00bd\u00b3\u00e3€\u00e3€‚ 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\u00e8\u00a8\u00b1\u00e5\u00a4š\u00e7\u00b7\u00ac\u00e7”\u00b8\u00e8\u00bb\u00e6–\u00b9\u00e9\u00a0˜\u00e5\u00b0Ž\u00e4\u00ba\u00ba\u00e5\u00b7\u00b2\u00e7\u00b6“\u00e5›\u00a0\u00e7‚\u00ba\u00e5\u00b0\u00e5\u00be…\u00e7\u00be…\u00e8ˆˆ\u00e4\u00baž\u00e7\u00a9†\u00e6–\u00af\u00e6ž—\u00e7š„\u00e6–\u00b9\u00e5\u00bc\u00e8€Œ\u00e5—\u00e5ˆ\u00b0\u00e5ˆ\u00b6\u00e8\u00a3\u00e3€‚\u00e5œ\u00a8\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e8\u00aeŠ\u00e4\u00b9‹\u00e5‰\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e5\u00b8ƒ\u00e6ž—\u00e8‚\u00af\u00e5‘\u00e5ƒ\u00e8\u00ad\u00b0\u00e9™\u00a2\u00e5\u00a4–\u00e4\u00ba\u00a4\u00e5\u00a7”\u00e5“\u00a1\u00e6œƒ(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)\u00e8\u00a1\u00a8\u00e7\u00a4\u00ba\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00bb–\u00e5\u00b0‡\u00e7›\u00a3\u00e7\u00a3\u00e4\u00b8€\u00e9\u00a0…\u00e7\u00a8‹\u00e5\u00ba\u00ef\u00bcŒ\u00e4\u00bb\u00a5\u00e7\u00a2\u00ba\u00e5\u00aeš\u00e7\u00b7\u00ac\u00e7”\u00b8\u00e6”\u00bf\u00e5\u00baœ\u00e5\u00b0\u00e5\u00be…\u00e7\u00be…\u00e8ˆˆ\u00e4\u00baž\u00e7\u00a9†\u00e6–\u00af\u00e6ž—\u00e5\u00b0‘\u00e6•\u00b8\u00e6\u00b0‘\u00e6—\u00e7š„\u00e5š\u00e6\u00b3•\u00e6˜\u00af\u00e5\u00a6\u00e6\u00a7‹\u00e6ˆ\u00e7\u00a8\u00ae\u00e6—\u00e6\u00bb…\u00e7\u00b5•\u00e3€‚ 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