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2,376 拜登政府上台以来，在对华议题上态度暧昧，虽然延续了前任特朗普政府对华的强硬措辞，但始终没有透露具体的对华政策。 从拜登和他的外交、国安高层的一些零星谈话中大致可以看出美对华政策的定位： 1、中国是美国必须击败的竞争对手； 2、怎么击败中国，美国还没想好，也不想单干，因此要先联合盟友，大家一起商量着办； 3、对付中国不是一朝一夕的事，美国要有战略耐心。 与特朗普政府鲁莽、粗暴的对华政策不同，拜登的这届政府颇有“谋定而后动”的意思。 之所以有这样的变化，是因为美国自认为找到了中国的弱点。 2月1日，美国国务卿布林肯在其首场电视专访中说：“我们必须以优势地位而不是劣势来应对中国，我认为这种实力来自于拥有强大的联盟，而中国实际上不具备这种条件”。 因此，一方面拜登和他的外交、国安团队近段时间不停地向各个国家打电话，每次都不厌其烦地提到“共同应对中国”，提到“大哥是站你这边”。另一方面，作为美国最重要的“对手”中国，美国方面却暗示不急于接触。美国国务院新任发言人普莱斯近日称，美国“首先要与盟友和合作伙伴对话”，再对华接触。 可以说，美国现在绕开了中国正面，正在迂回包抄、四处撺掇，以求结成一张压制中国的大网。 但是美国的这一招会管用吗？没有强大的联盟真的是中国的软肋吗？下面我们来分析一下。 首先，从动机上看，美国的那些盟友是不太愿意联合起来压制中国的。 联盟存在的基础是在国家安全上有共同的敌人。二战时期，美苏等因反法西斯而结盟。冷战时，西方国家因苏联的扩张而结盟。希特勒是要并吞全欧洲的，而苏联的钢铁洪流也是随时准备冲过欧洲平原的。可是现在的中国，一不输出意识形态和发展模式，二不进行武力扩张。 反华势力热衷炒作的“中国威胁论”，最多是一种意识形态上的偏见，而不是政治和安全上的实质的威胁。相反，越来越多的国家已经把中国当作最重要的贸易伙伴国。中国发展的红利已经产生巨大的溢出效应，让全世界都受惠。 而中国提出的“人类命运共同体”这样的国际观也深得人心。所以即便在意识形态上，西方敌视中国的声浪有时会很高，但要他们联合起来把中国当作“敌人”，从而形成“反华同盟”，他们图啥？美国压制中国是为了怕被抢走“老大”的位置，而这些国家呢？和中国合作所得到的好处比跟着美国老大的好处还多，那何苦跟美国联合“反华”呢？ 其次，世界各国，包括美国的盟友其实也已“苦美国久矣”。 美国依靠美元、美军和科技的霸权地位薅世界各国的羊毛也不是一天两天了。美国在经济上对盟友的打压也是毫不手软的，从日本到法国，教训历历在目。这几年随着美国国力相对衰弱，美国国内问题丛生，美国这个老大也加大了向小弟们伸手的力度。特朗普上台后向盟友漫天涨军费，动不动就关税制裁，各种国际义务却不承担，频频退群。这让盟友们都觉得这个老大靠不住了。 现在虽然拜登上台，意图重拾盟友的信任，但伤害已经造成。欧洲各国现在都在嘀咕，万一四年后又选上一个类似特朗普的人呢。所以欧盟才赶在拜登上任之前赶紧和中国签订中欧投资协定。 基于上面的原因。美国国务卿口中的制衡中国“联盟”实在是有点一厢情愿。 大多数美国的传统盟友从心里是不愿意在中美之前选边站的。 新加坡总理李显龙明确表态：没有国家希望在中美之间选边站。 韩国是美国最坚定的盟友，但文在寅总统也在1月的记者会上表态韩国不会在中美间选边。韩国最新发布的《国防白皮书》已经悄悄把中韩萨德问题的争端删除。 英国、法国和德国领导人在和拜登通话后，在新闻稿中只字不提中国。只有美方的新闻稿大谈通话的内容包括协商如何制衡中国。 印度提出自己是和中国“平行崛起”的大国，其中的一个意思也是：不会完全跟在美国后面当小弟。 而充当美国反华“急先锋”的澳大利亚，已经给中国写了十几封的求和信了。 这里要说下日本。打压中国，日本可能是美国所有盟国中受益最大的，但也只能在钓鱼岛问题上给自己壮壮胆而已了。如果胆敢在台湾问题上伸黑手，那就是直接摊牌的问题了，日本不会不知道。 综合上面的分析，一句话“人心散了，队伍难带了”。美国想拉帮结伙，拉盟友一起打压中国，把冷战中对付苏联的那套再用一次，恐怕是不行了，时代终究变了！（王其）<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11532,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/https___s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com_psh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4_images_3_5_7_3_32033753-3-eng-GB_CUCmain3_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11695,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/02\/06\/%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e5%b0%8d%e8%8f%af%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e9%80%99%e5%b9%be%e5%8f%a5%e8%a9%b1%ef%bc%8c%e8%a9%b2%e6%80%8e%e9%ba%bc%e7%90%86%e8%a7%a3%ef%bc%9f\/","url_meta":{"origin":11531,"position":0},"title":"\u62dc\u767b\u5c0d\u83ef\u653f\u7b56\u9019\u5e7e\u53e5\u8a71\uff0c\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u7406\u89e3\uff1f","date":"February 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