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2,427 2021å¹´01月28æ—¥ 莫里森政府一向自大 有一分實力說一分話，打腫臉充胖子最後還是苦了自己。這麼簡單的道理，澳大利亞吃了兩年癟都沒悟出來。 紅酒、煤炭、大麥、牛肉……以農礦出口立國的澳大利亞經濟在2020年頻遭中方反制。然而新的一年裡澳方不思悔改，反而要一條道走到黑——澳政府25日發布的官方消息，該國將該國將斥資10億澳元為海軍開發新型武器，包括遠程飛彈和魚雷，以應對所謂的「區域局勢緊張」。 在挑事和拱火上，澳大利亞還真沒輸過誰。澳大利亞是全球少有的明確禁止華為5G的國家，並且給不出任何有效證據；在疫情中澳大利亞又不斷拱火，一直到中國禁止進口澳大利亞煤炭的消息傳達下來，澳大利亞都處於「不知情」狀態。 澳大利亞是為數不多明確禁止華為5G的國家 事實上，澳大利亞此前就曾擴張軍備，並將艦艇開進南海與美國一起「自由航行」。如今準備再次升級局勢，武力對抗中國。不僅如此，一些政客還試圖在中美之間拱火，並從中謀取利益，妄想把手伸向亞太。 顯然，掂量不清自己幾斤幾兩，是澳大利亞目前的主要問題。 盲目自大的風氣在澳洲政壇蔓延得非常嚴重。澳大利亞一邊依仗著美國正面對抗中國，一邊又打著小算盤想從美國身上拿地區控制權。當今世界上難度最大的兩件事——對抗中國和薅美國羊毛，這個國家都想干。 美澳之間關係更像是主僕 澳洲能力有限，擴張水分大 就本次軍備擴張的核心海軍軍備來說，澳政府承諾為海軍「提供」射程超過370公里的反艦和地對空飛彈，以及射程超過1500公里的海基攻陸飛彈。澳防長雷諾茲更是在聲明中說：「這些新能力將提供強大的、可靠的威懾力，確保地區穩定和安全。」 聽起來是挺唬人的，但稍微了解澳洲的人都知道，所謂的「提供」實際上就是從歐美進口現成的貨架產品，澳大利亞本身的研發和製造能力實際上都非常差。澳大利亞海軍最自傲的神盾艦霍巴特號在澳大利亞潛艇公司造船場總裝時，就出現了龍骨扭曲、電纜與作戰系統設備尺寸不一等問題。最終澳洲花了八年時間製造了一艘被認為「相當成熟、低風險」的七千噸級驅逐艦。 澳洲小麥因為中國反傾銷關稅而陷入危機 能力與胃口不對稱，達成目的可能性基本為零 退一萬步說，即使能夠順利擴張，澳大利亞海軍的規模還是太小了。目前其核心是兩艘坎培拉級投送艦與三艘霍巴特級驅逐艦。除此以外就只有90年代服役的澳新軍團級護衛艦還堪一用，水下的6艘柯林斯級也是中規中矩的常規動力潛艇。 對比起來，中國人民海軍驅逐艦數量就是澳軍的十倍以上，航母、核潛艇更是澳軍沒有的，澳軍憑藉這點規模就敢拍胸脯說自己有強大威懾力，確實有些可笑。 說到底，澳軍囂張的基礎還是美軍。澳洲敢於正面對抗中國的靠山也是美國。但在逐漸升級的衝突中，澳洲一些政治家開始被衝動影響，忘了美國不願意與中國升級衝突的底線，在美國忙著處理本國內亂的時候持續升溫區域局勢。美國對地緣局勢的追求是有限度的，當澳洲的挑釁可能引起中美戰爭，美國就會毫不猶豫地拋棄澳洲。 澳海軍的核心：坎培拉級投送艦 澳軍武裝受限，不可能大規模擴軍 澳洲在這幾年被美國推出來做馬前卒，風頭是很盛了，讓澳洲本土的一些政治家有點飄了，幾乎已經忘了，澳軍強不強，是美國說了算。 在美國的全球盟友體系中，澳軍起到一個中段預警與太平洋反潛的作用，即使澳洲還有經濟富裕，美軍也會根據自己給澳軍的定位限制澳軍發展。畢竟澳大利亞與美國隔太平洋相望，美軍也害怕澳軍實力強大後瓜分自己在亞洲的利益。 美日澳聯合軍演 二戰後澳大利亞的每次擴軍，都是美國主導或允許。美國長期將澳軍維持在一個滿足自己需要，但不威脅自己在亞太地區利益的程度。而澳大利亞現在如果想大規模擴軍，美國制止的將會比中國還積極。 說到底澳洲還只是個美國拋出來試探中國的可拋棄式棋子，入戲太深對澳大利亞的未來不好。所以一些澳洲政客，最重要的事情還是先掂量清自己幾斤幾兩，再去吃合自己胃口的菜，不要想著蛇吞象這等好事。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/8ee3a310-dc57-11ea-8f33-375d51ddd525_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C377","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24158,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/07\/15\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e9%80%b2%e5%8f%a3%e5%bc%b7%e5%8b%81%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%b7%ef%bc%8c%e5%a4%96%e5%9c%8b%e5%ad%b8%e8%80%85%e5%8b%b8%e6%be%b3%e5%9b%9e%e9%a0%ad%e6%98%af%e5%b2%b8%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%96%e6%b6%88\/","url_meta":{"origin":11353,"position":0},"title":"\u4e2d\u570b\u9032\u53e3\u5f37\u52c1\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u52f8\u6fb3\u56de\u982d\u662f\u5cb8\uff0c\u53d6\u6d88\u544a\u72c0WTO\u4e3b\u52d5\u6c42\u548c","date":"July 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