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2,436 參議院的共和黨同僚都是一起吃過飯喝過酒的，關鍵時候還得靠自己人 美國也有飯局，而且美國人也不是都吃漢堡。在2019-2020年間川普面臨彈劾時，川普就曾大擺宴席邀請參議院共和黨議員來吃飯喝酒。結果大家都知道了，彈劾失敗。而2021年，由佩洛西發起的對川普的第二次彈劾，結果又會怎麼樣？ 1月25日，眾議院將彈劾提案提交給了參議院。當議員風塵僕僕走進國會大廈，是否想過1月6日所謂叛亂分子也在這裡留下過足跡。1月25日，拜登率先對彈劾川普一事發表了自己的態度：彈劾是必須要進行的，但是成功的可能性很小。拜登說，彈劾川普需要參議院2\/3的議員投贊成票才能成功，但是要讓17名共和黨議員和民主黨站在一起，幾乎沒可能。 而在1月26日，參議院對彈劾離任總統是否合憲進行了投票，45名參議院共和黨議員投了反對票，意味著這45名共和黨人選擇保全川普，這個人數占據了參議院共和黨議員的90%，意味著接下來就算民主黨強行推進彈劾表決，參議院也不可能超過2\/3贊成票。 之後共和黨參議員蘭德·ä¿ç¾…宣布：民主黨對川普的彈劾是違背憲法的，這個彈劾案到達參議院時已經死了。這樣的結果，也印證了拜登的預言：彈劾川普成功性很小。 蘭德·ä¿ç¾…在眾議院向參議院提交彈劾案時就表明了自己的態度：反對民主黨彈劾川普，稱這種行為不利於國家團結。民主黨在參議院彈劾川普本身就沒有勝算，因為在眾議院投票彈劾時，也只有10名共和黨眾議院議員選擇和民主黨站在一起。而在參議院本輪的「彈劾是否合憲」投票中，只有5人反對了蘭德·ä¿ç¾…的議案，分別是緬因州的蘇珊·æŸ¯æž—斯，阿拉斯加州的莉薩·ç©†çˆ¾ç§‘斯基，猶他州的米特·ç¾…姆尼，內布拉斯加州的本薩斯以及賓夕法尼亞州的帕特·åœ–米。 帕特·åœ–米這個名字，如果關注美國大選這個名字應該很熟悉。帕特·åœ–米和川普一直意見不和，早在2019年川普要對墨西哥提升關稅的時候，帕特·åœ–米就提出是否要限制川普的關稅權限。而在國會山陷落之際，帕特·åœ–米也發聲：認為川普犯下了可以彈劾的罪行。從那以後，這個名字就非常響亮。 2017年，在川普有關於新醫改的投票中，參議院議員蘇珊·æŸ¯æž—斯和阿拉斯加州的莉薩·ç©†çˆ¾ç§‘斯基就投過反對票，而川普之後發推對莉薩·ç©†çˆ¾ç§‘斯基攻擊：你讓共和黨感到失望，太差勁了！川普似乎和女性政客都鬧得關係不太好，尤其是和民主黨眾議院議長佩洛西。兩人上演了拒絕握手，和當眾撕演講稿的鬧劇。 而猶他州的羅姆尼也是川普的「宿敵」，在2020å¹´7月羅姆尼就對川普提名自己的經濟顧問進入美聯儲委員會表達了反對。而在2019年川普因為發推被指發表種族主義言論遭到了羅姆尼的批評，羅姆尼用「不利於團結，非常錯誤」評價了川普的言論，而和羅姆尼立場一致的還有莉薩·ç©†çˆ¾ç§‘斯基。 2020å¹´10月份，內布拉斯加州的本薩斯對川普的抗疫行動十分不滿公開炮轟，之後川普發推稱：那個內布拉斯加州的小小本薩斯，是53名共和黨議員最不起作用的！早在2017年針對川普的「限穆令」，本薩斯就提出反對意見，本薩斯被認為是對川普長期持有反對意見的共和黨議員。 為什麼要大費周章找這5名支持彈劾川普議員和川普的關係？目的是讓大家更加清楚地看到美國參議院的一個客觀現實狀況。即：反對川普的共和黨議員實際上一直都是這個狀態，而並非是在國會山問題上才開始反對川普的，這意味著目前的參議院共和黨絕大多數議員依然支持川普，那麼就此可以判斷：就算民主黨強行推進彈劾案，最終在參議院大概率還是會失敗。 這樣，就可以進一步猜測未來的川普會幹嘛。目前，川普在佛羅里達州的棕櫚灘已經開建了自己的「前總統辦公室」，這意味著川普會在未來的一個時間段會再次出現在公眾視野。至於怎麼重返公眾視野，川普可能會搭建自己的社交網絡平台。就目前的狀態看，美國社交三巨頭不太可能解封川普，讓川普處於「社交性死亡」被認為有利於美國社會穩定和團結。 等川普&大選的熱度過後，至少公眾視野和支持川普的人不再集中關注川普的時候，那麼川普對於共和黨還有價值嗎？當然，越是正常點的川普，對於共和黨越有價值。從川普和共和黨議員的矛盾看，川普這個口無遮攔的「懂王」，得罪人的重要原因就是自己的「大嘴巴」，等川普「成熟點」，在共和黨議員選舉，或者下一屆美國大選的時候，川普依然有用武之地。 目前來看，共和黨和民主黨的鬥爭很激烈，矛盾也在進一步深化。拜登上任6天簽署了33條行政令，其中多條推翻和反對川普的政策。這讓共和黨議員大為光火，尤其是在中止加拿大-美國基石XL石油管道問題上，已經有多名共和黨議員表達了反對，其中包括參議員史蒂夫·æˆ´æ©ï¼Œç‘ªèŽŽ·å¸ƒèŠå…‹ã€‚而在伊朗問題上， 共和黨議員湯姆·ç§‘頓也持有和民主黨完全不同的態度，尤其是拜登準備任命羅布·é¦¬åˆ©æŒ‡å°Žä¼Šæ ¸å•é¡Œã€‚ 綜上可見，無論是彈劾川普還是在國家經濟以及中東政策上，共和黨和民主黨的矛盾依然很大。尤其是在重大問題上參議院需要2\/3的名額才能通過，這意味著以佩洛西為首的民主黨想要掰倒川普這尊瘟神基本沒有可能，而如果川普的社交能力一旦被釋放，那麼美國美麗風景線又要開啟。 對於川普而言得罪誰也別得罪佩洛西，對於民主黨而言，共和黨未來誰當總統都行，就川普不行<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/merlin_170299146_80803d60-5cca-4d45-9a8d-9c14c5aed0db-mobileMasterAt3x_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12518,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/02\/15\/%e5%b7%9d%e6%99%ae%ef%bc%8c%e7%8e%8b%e8%80%85%e6%ad%b8%e4%be%86%ef%bc%9f%e5%be%88%e5%a4%9a%e6%94%af%e6%8c%81%e8%80%85%e7%9b%bc%e4%bb%96%e5%9b%9e%e6%ad%b8%ef%bc%8c%e5%85%b1%e5%92%8c%e9%bb%a8%e6%b7%aa\/","url_meta":{"origin":11319,"position":0},"title":"\u5ddd\u666e\uff0c\u738b\u8005\u6b78\u4f86\uff1f\u5f88\u591a\u652f\u6301\u8005\u76fc\u4ed6\u56de\u6b78\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u6dea\u70ba\u5ddd\u666e\u73a9\u7269","date":"February 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