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2,568 预防感染效果较差的疫苗对人群中新冠病毒传播的影响较小。但是，即使使用效果较差的疫苗，疫苗接种人数水平对死亡的影响仍然可能很大。 编译 | 王聪来源 | Nature 随着世界各国推出新冠疫苗及疫苗接种计划，研究人员急切地关注着疫苗接种对新冠大流行病产生的影响。最近，以色列的研究人员报告了新冠疫苗接种后的初步数据，数据表明接种新冠疫苗的人比未接种的新冠病毒（SARS-CoV-2）呈阳性的可能性要低约三分之一。疫苗的覆盖范围、疫苗的效果，以及病毒的传播速度等等，这些因素决定了科学家们需要多久才能判断疫苗接种对新冠大流行影响。以色列和阿联酋在疫苗覆盖率方面处于世界领先地位，当然，这主要是由于这两个国家小，人口也少，且比较富裕，两国都已为超过200万人口接种新冠疫苗，占全国人口的约四分之一。其他国家，例如英国和挪威，已将其疫苗接种计划定位于高风险人群，英国已经为超过400万人接种了疫苗，其中大部分是医疗保健工作者和老年人，包括住在疗养院的老年人。 挪威为所有住在疗养院的居民（约4万人）接种了疫苗。 第一个结果 以色列 第一个了报告接种新冠疫苗对临床试验以外人群的影响。结果表明接种辉瑞– BioNTech开发的mRNA疫苗可以预防接种者的感染或限制其持续时间。在对20万名60岁以上的老年人接种新冠疫苗的初步分析中，与20万名未接种该疫苗的人群相比，研究人员发现，首次注射后两周，新冠病毒检测呈阳性反应的概率降低了33％。 这表明接种疫苗确实会对整个群体产生积极影响，目前该数据还未包括疫苗第二剂注射后的效果。之前的临床试验表明，辉瑞– BioNTechçš„mRNA疫苗在预防新冠方面约有90％的有效性，此次以色列的初步接种数据表明，该疫苗确实可以提供一定的保护以防止感染。目前以色列超过75％的老年人已经接种了新冠疫苗，预计在接下来的几周里，接种疫苗的老年人的住院率将会下降。大多数国家\/地区都优先考虑将新冠疫苗接种给罹患严重疾病或死亡高风险人群。因此，在这些国家或地区注射疫苗是否有效的第一个证据就是看是否减少了住院人数，以及是否减少了死亡人数。 实现群体免疫 如果疫苗能有效预防新冠感染，那么只有在足够多比例的人进行了疫苗接种后，疫苗的间接利益（保护未接种疫苗的人）才会显现出来，也就是所谓的“群体免疫”。以色列可能是第一个看到接种疫苗对整个人口产生影响的国家。这是因为通过高效疫苗实现广泛覆盖，当有足够的人对新冠病毒产生免疫，就能实现群体免疫，进一步控制不到传播这种间接保护的最初迹象可能出现在接受过广泛疫苗接种的特定人群中，例如医疗保健和长期护理工作者及其家人。但是目前新冠感染人数的下降，还很难将疫苗因素与其他公共卫生干预措施（例如隔离和封锁）区分开来，因为传染病非常难以预测，最终需要大量数据来消除许多不可预测性。 未来的挑战 虽然现在整个欧洲疫情依然严峻，但例如挪威等国家，新冠疫情已经得到了有效控制，那么在这种地方就很难确定疫苗对减少整体新冠感染的效果。在整个国家达到高疫苗覆盖率之前，新冠病毒的猖獗传播也使此类调查变得复杂。例如，经过疫苗接种的医护人员也许能够保护家人免受感染，但是当病毒无处不在时，还是有很多机会感染家庭成员。澳大利亚新南威尔士大学的流行病学家 Raina MacIntyre è¡¨ç¤ºï¼Œé™¤äº†ä»¥è‰²åˆ—，疫苗不会很快对病毒传播产生影响，因为许多其他国家正在使用效率低得多的疫苗，这些疫苗不太可能控制感染。 é¢„防感染效果较差的疫苗对人群中新冠病毒传播的影响较小。但是，即使使用效果较差的疫苗，疫苗接种人数水平对死亡的影响仍然可能很大。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Capture_\u526f\u672c-2.png?fit=700%2C383","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12169,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/02\/11\/%e4%b8%96%e8%a1%9b%e8%ad%89%e5%af%a6%e7%89%9b%e6%b4%a5%e7%96%ab%e8%8b%97%e7%9c%9f%e5%af%a6%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88%ef%bc%81%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b2%e6%9c%8822%e6%97%a5%e5%85%ac%e5%b8%83%e8%a7%a3%e5%b0%81\/","url_meta":{"origin":11231,"position":0},"title":"\u4e16\u885b\u8b49\u5be6\u725b\u6d25\u75ab\u82d7\u771f\u5be6\u6709\u6548\uff01\u82f1\u570b2\u670822\u65e5\u516c\u5e03\u89e3\u5c01\u7d30\u7bc0","date":"February 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