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3,332 　今年要充分利用政策空間，如果實現5.3%的增速，有望實現兩個翻一番目標。展望中國經濟發展前景，未來中國仍具有8%的增長潛力。　　新京報記者 顧志娟 ç·¨è¼¯ 徐超　　8月19日，在北京大學經濟學院思政實踐課無極縣教育基地揭牌儀式上，北京大學新結構經濟學研究院院長林毅夫進行了題為「新冠肺炎疫情與中美摩擦雙重背景下的中國經濟發展」的報告。林毅夫表示，今年要充分利用政策空間，如果實現5.3%的增速，有望實現兩個翻一番目標。展望中國經濟發展前景，林毅夫表示，未來中國仍具有8%的增長潛力。中國能否達成第一個百年目標？　　中國仍有8%左右的增長潛力，　　政策空間可以實現目標　　對於中國來說，2020年是一個特殊的年份，是實現第一個百年奮鬥目標的決勝之年，是全面建成小康社會的收官之年，也是脫貧攻堅戰的達標之年。其中，兩個重要的量化指標是「兩個倍增」，即國內生產總值和城鄉居民人均收入比2010年翻一番。　　中國能否在2020年實現第一個百年奮鬥目標？林毅夫表示，實現這一目標並不困難，因為中國發展的潛力和空間非常大。中國在過去41年改革開放過程中，保持了每年9.4%的平均增速，未來每年仍有8%左右的增長潛力。去年中國的人均GDP只有美國的16%左右，對比二戰後發展較好的東亞經濟體，例如日本、「亞洲四小龍」，當這些經濟體處於中國目前發展階段之時，隨後都能維持8%-10%的增長，所以中國也有可能保持這一增速。　　要實現「兩個倍增」目標，中國經濟需要保持每年7.2%的增速。從2010年到現在，前幾年中國經濟平均增速超過7.2%，2020年的增速只要達到5.3%就能實現目標。林毅夫表示，中國有8%的增長潛力，要實現5.3%的增速是相對容易的。增長潛力是從供給側角度來說，潛力能夠發揮多少決定於需求側，主要把握國內需求。中國是一個14億人口的大市場，空間大，可用的政策手段多。因此，中國要實現5.3%的增速，實現一系列目標應該比較容易。　　不過，今年年初暴發新冠肺炎疫情對經濟帶來了較大衝擊，全國各地停工停產，生產停滯，消費下降，經濟停擺。3月份各地開始復工復產，但部分地區出現不少困難，例如東區沿海的一些工廠找不到工人，或者因為供應鏈的中斷無法實現復產。按照2003å¹´SARS的經驗，一個季度以後情況就能恢復，但新冠肺炎與SARS有所區別，新冠肺炎是全球性的傳染病，不僅影響中國和東亞，還影響到全世界。　　疫情對美國經濟的影響最為典型，停工停產等措施影響產出和消費，整個社會需求減少；3月，石油價格崩盤，美股市場也出現較大波動，股票大跌代表大量財富損失。在疫情防控措施造成家庭收入減少和金融市場波動的雙重影響下，美國失業率急劇增加，此後美國政府開始救市，包括無限量寬鬆貨幣政策，以及2.2萬億美元的財政刺激計劃等。IMF對全球經濟增長預期不斷下調，今年4月IMF預測美國今年增長率為-5.9%，6月的預測調低至-8%ï¼›4月IMF預計全球增長率為-3.0%，6月預測調低至–4.9%。　　林毅夫表示，今年一季度，中國GDP下滑6.8%，二季度恢復正增長，上半年整體的增長率為-1.6%，從全球來看，這一成績得來不易。2020年中國能不能實現第一個百年目標，主要靠下半年，全年要達到5.3%的增長，下半年必須有12.2%的增長，這不是不可能。中國的政策空間大，迴旋餘地多。從貨幣政策來看，現在中國的基準利率為正，還有下調空間，還可降低存款準備金率。從財政政策來看，中國的名義政府負債率約為60%，而很多發達國家政府負債率超過100%；再考慮到中國與國外在政府負債方面有所不同，中國地方政府債務絕大多數是用來做投資，有資產可以營運，中國的政府凈債務比名義債務低很多。因此，中國政府靠積極財政政策來支持消費投資的能力比發達國家更強。如果中國把各種政策工具都用上，下半年達到12.2%的增長是有可能的。　　今年中國經濟增速應達到多少？　　全年實現3%的增長較為合適，　　給明年留一定空間　　「有可能達成目標，與是否要把政策空間全部用上是兩回事。」林毅夫指出，在不確定性較高的情況下，不能把所有的子彈都打光。新冠肺炎疫情在疫苗研製出來之前有很大不確定性，未來很可能暴發第二波、第三波疫情，除非全世界疫情都控制住了，否則不能說已經完全走出了威脅。　　他認為，中國今年實現3%左右的增長，給明年留一定空間，這樣的安排是比較合理的。全年增長3%，下半年的增長率只需達到7.6%。今年是脫貧攻堅的決勝年，脫貧攻堅需要保證就業，脫貧人員沒有就業可能返貧，而就業增長與經濟增長是高度相關的，3%的增長有利於脫貧攻堅目標的完成。並且，從國際比較來看，3%的增長已經是非常了不起的成績。若按IMF的預測，中國比全球的增長率高7.9個百分點；比美國高出11個百分點，比往年的優勢更大。　　然而，如果今年全年增長率低於5.3%，「兩個倍增」的目標就難以實現。林毅夫表示，如果今年實現3%的增長，明年保持3%的增長，到2021年就可以實現「兩個倍增」目標，仍可滿足在共產黨建黨100年達成第一個百年目標。　　林毅夫指出，3%的增長也需要各方一起努力來實現。基建是過去中國在應對各種危機時常使用的方法，這次僅依靠基建還不夠，需要有新辦法、新措施，最重要的是保家庭、保企業。為了防控疫情，各地停工停產、居家隔離，部分人群不工作就沒有收入，很難度過難關。企業此次面臨的衝擊既有外需不足，又有內需不足，復工率高但復產率低，企業面臨倒閉風險，可能增加失業。這種狀況之下，需要有針對家庭和企業的措施。對於家庭，可行的措施包括改進對貧困戶的認定標準，低收入家庭進行轉移支付等。對於企業，可以用減稅降費、緩繳五險一金等方式，還有銀行的貸款支持，這些措施對企業都有很大幫助。林毅夫表示，如果能夠有針對性地使用政策手段，今年全面脫貧的目標能夠實現，到明年，第一個百年目標也可以實現。　　中美摩擦為何愈演愈烈？　　貿易逆差是藉口，　　實際意在打壓中國的發展　　林毅夫表示，疫情總會過去，對中國影響更長遠的因素是中美摩擦。　　中美之間最早開始的是貿易摩擦，美國對中國有很大的貿易逆差，美國總統川普認為逆差代表美國人吃虧了。林毅夫指出，實際上，美國向中國買東西並不是美國無法生產，而是因為從中國買更便宜，貿易的產生是各個國家比較優勢的結果。在二戰以後，美國一直都從國外進口勞動密集型產品，尤其是亞洲市場，八九十 年代中國開始改革開放後，「亞洲四小龍」的勞動密集型產業轉移到中國大陸，「亞洲四小龍」對美國的貿易順差也集中到中國大陸來。傳統上美國對東亞國家的貿易逆差就很大，此前美國對外貿易逆差的80%來自東亞國家，最多達到100%；現在美國對外貿易逆差中，中國的比重在增加，整個東亞的比重在降低。因此，美國對外貿易逆差增加並不是中國造成的，主要是美國國內因素。逆差是消費過多、儲蓄不足造成的，美國長時間持續逆差增大的狀況，主要原因是美元作為國際儲備貨幣的特權，美國可以增發貨幣在全球進行購買。　　林毅夫指出，川普上台後對中國產品加征關稅，實際是「搬石頭砸自己的腳」。美國2017年開始使用關稅政策，但其2018年的貿易逆差還在增加，對中國的逆差增加了11.7%，顯然關稅方式不能解決逆差問題。　　「美國這麼做，項莊舞劍意在沛公，貿易逆差的問題只是一個藉口，美國是為了抑制中國的發展。」林毅夫表示，美國是目前全球唯一的霸權，中國的崛起威脅到美國的霸權地位，因此美國意圖打壓中國。此前也發生過類似情況，二戰後形成以美國為首的資本主義陣營和以蘇聯為首的社會主義陣營，當時美國打壓蘇聯。中國在80年代以後開始改革開放，走自己的道路，並沒有根據美國開出的新自由主義藥方來走，中國自行判斷國外經驗是否適合，用漸進雙軌的方式，中國經濟取得穩定快速發展。1978年中國還是世界上最貧窮的國家，到2012年中國的經濟規模就超過日本，成為世界第二大經濟體。中國在世界上的影響力越來越大。美國為了維持全球話語權，開始給中國製造麻煩。　　除了貿易逆差之外，現在美國還以知識產權的名義對中國企業採取限制措施。林毅夫表示，企業之間可能存在知識產權竊取行為，但是沒有國家層面系統性的知識產權竊取行為。中國是世界知識產權組織的簽約國，中國國內也有知識產權相關法律，有知識產權法院，如果中國企業有相關侵權行為，外國企業可以訴諸法律，而不是在政治上採取行動。美方還有中國政府強迫美國企業轉讓知識產權或技術的說法，林毅夫指出，美國企業到中國投資，要在中國市場內競爭，或以中國為生產基地在國際市場上競爭，必須用最好的技術來生產，這是企業為了自身利潤最大化自然形成的選擇，不是中國政府的原因。　　中國如何應對？　　保持定力繼續深化改革開放，　　2030年中國經濟規模將超過美國　　中國應該怎麼辦？林毅夫表示，最重要的是保持定力，繼續利用好我們的發展空間和潛力，繼續深化改革開放，這樣的發展不僅有利於中國，而且有利於世界。「如果能這樣做，美國想要孤立中國，最終也只是孤立它自己。」　　林毅夫認為，中國還有8%的增長潛力，經濟增長靠的是勞動力生產率水平不斷提高，一種方式是靠技術的提高，每個勞動力可以生產出更多產品；另一種方式要靠產業升級，用新的附加值高的產業取代附加值低的產業。這一機制同時適用於發達國家和發展中國家，發展中國家可以利用後來者優勢，可以用引進消化吸收再創新的方式，進行技術創新和產業升級，這種方式的風險成本小得多，速度也快得多。　　中國還有多少快速發展的潛力？林毅夫預計，未來十 年，即到2030年，平均實現每年5%-6%的增長是可能的。如果能達到這一增速，兩個裡程碑就可以實現，第一個是到2025年前後，中國人均GDP可以超過12700美元，按照國際標準人均GDP超過這一水平就是高收入國家，目前全世界16%的人口符合高收入標準，中國加入之後高收入人口比例將達到34%，這對世界來說也是一個很大的變化。另一個裡程碑是，到2030年，中國總體經濟規模將超過美國，成為世界第一大經濟體。在這一基礎上，如果中國繼續開放，美國想要打壓中國就不容易。因為各國都會利用國內、國際兩個市場、兩種資源，中國作為全世界最具影響力的市場，其他國家的企業也會充分利用中國市場，其他國家的經濟也會乘著中國的發展而發展。　　林毅夫認為，當中國人均GDP達到美國的一半時，美國的霸權主義可能才會停止。中國人口是美國的四倍，中國人均GDP達到美國的一半意味著中國經濟規模是美國的兩倍。並且，中國國內有地區差異，有3.5億人口的京津冀、東南沿海、中西區的重要城市，人均GDP將會與美國相當，代表這些城市的產業技術達到與美國相同的水平，美國的技術優勢消失；另外10億中國人口的人均GDP約為美國的1\/3，這部分地區發展速度會更快。這一時間節點大概是在中國第二個百年目標實現時，即2050年。要實現這一目標，只需要2030年前保持5%-6%的增長，2030年到2040年實現4%-5%的增長，2040年到2050年實現3%-4%的增長，中國完全有可能實現。　　十九大報告表示，到建黨一百年時建成經濟更加發展、民主更加健全、科教更加進步、文化更加繁榮、社會更加和諧、人民生活更加殷實的小康社會，然後再奮鬥三十 年，到新中國成立一百年時，基本實現現代化，把中國建成社會主義現代化國家。林毅夫表示，當前可以說是中國完成第一個百年目標、邁向第二個百年目標時，面對的百年未有之大變局，挑戰來自自然因素、地緣政治因素，但只要分析清楚問題如何產生、如何演變，我們有足夠的智慧、足夠的政策空間去克服，以新的發展理念為核心，目標就會實現。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u4e9a\u6d321_\u526f\u672c-1.jpg?fit=800%2C420","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43814,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2022\/06\/26\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bd%e7%b8%bd%e8%83%bd%e6%b2%88%e7%a9%a9%e5%8c%96%e8%a7%a3%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%89%93%e5%a3%93%ef%bc%9f%e8%82%a9%e8%b2%a0%e7%9a%843%e5%a4%a7%e9%87%8d%e4%bb%bb\/","url_meta":{"origin":11098,"position":0},"title":"\u4e2d\u570b\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebd\u7e3d\u80fd\u6c89\u00b7\u7a69\u5316\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u6253\u58d3\uff1f\u80a9\u8ca0\u76843\u5927\u91cd\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u770b\u4e0d\u61c2","date":"June 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