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3,206 拜登在大选阶段曾把中国称为“恶棍”。他上台之后，美国的对华政策走向会如何？为什么说中国在崛起进程中难以避免和美国发生冲突？12月14号美国选举人团投票确定了拜登成功当选美国总统，这意味着对华政策极为强硬的特朗普很快就要卷铺盖走人了。拜登上台之后，中美关系会得到改善吗？拜登在十月下旬最后一场总统大选辩论时曾把中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜并称为“恶棍”，这预示着他上任之后会将中国视为最大的敌手，对华政策将持续强硬。不能幻想拜登上台之后中美关系会得到实质性的改善，美国的共和党和民主党在很多议题上都有尖锐的分歧，但是两党独将维护美国的世界霸权作为最核心的战略目标，在对华政策上有着高度的共识，都认为美国以前的对华接触政策已经彻底失败，现在中国是美国最大的敌人，要不遗余力地遏制中国的崛起，特朗普的对华政策是乱拳挥舞、刚猛直接和单边主义，大打贸易战、科技战、舆论战、外交战，并且在台海和南海进行军事挑衅，在涉港涉疆等问题上粗暴干涉中国的内政，而拜登作为一个老奸巨猾、老谋深算的资深政客，他上台之后对华政策会既强硬又有章法，他将联合欧洲、日本 æ¾³å¤§åˆ©äºšã€å°åº¦ç­‰ç›Ÿå‹å’Œä¼™ä¼´ï¼Œèµ°å¤šè¾¹ä¸»ä¹‰çš„路线，努力结成反华国际阵线，并且将根据意识形态的色彩在民主人权的问题上加大打击中国的力度\/拜登最近发表演说称：“美国已经准备好领导世界，而不是退出世界，美国将重新领导世界。”这个貌似是要从特朗普推行的美国优先的信条上作出重大转变，实质上不过是美国维护霸权的另外一种方式罢了，重点同样是指向中国，所谓“领导世界”，不过是美国推行霸权的一种别称。中国要崛起，要实现中华民族的伟大复兴，对于美国维护世界霸权的目标存在难以调和的结构性矛盾。为什么这么说呢？原因在于美国要确保世界霸主地位，这意味着他要确保在实力上遥遥领先其他任何国家，哪怕是竞争对手的实力达到美国的70%都无法接受，而中国要实现伟大复兴，意味着综合国力需要大幅度的提升，国际影响力要进一步的增强，现在中国的综合国力与美国的差距在快速缩小，在GDP上已经接近美国的70%，在这种情况下，美国必然要对中国进行全面打压以达到遏制中国崛起的目标，甚至妄图迫使中国“崩溃”，不达目的他不会罢休。再说地球就这么大资源就这么多，美国极为自私自利要垄断资源，想要自己过得很好。且不会允许中国人民过上富足的生活。美国前总统奥巴马曾说：“如果中国十多亿人口都能过上跟美国和澳大利亚一样的生活，将会是全人类的悲剧和灾难，地球根本无法承受。”美国哈佛大学的一位知名学者叫艾利森，他把这种崛起国和霸权国之间的冲突称作“修昔底德陷阱”，说的就是霸权国和崛起国之间很难避免发生冲突和战争，这在历史上也确实得到了很好的印证，为了避免修昔底德陷阱，我们国家提出了“构建新型大国关系”的解决方案，也就是要和美国构建不冲突、不对抗、相互尊重、互利共赢的关系，并且反复重申中国致力于和平崛起，承诺中国强大了也不会称霸，但是美国拒绝接受，他根本不愿意尊重中国，不尊重中国的社会制度和意识形态，不相信中国不称霸的承诺，他只相信力量的逻辑，结构性的矛盾是很难调和的，甚至是无法调和的，这种零和较量除非一方做出重大妥协和让步，比如说除非中国放弃伟大复兴的目标或者美国放弃称霸世界的目标，这种情况下，双方才有可能会形成和解。除了崛起国和霸权国之间固有的矛盾和冲突，中美之间还是两种不同的文明和两种不同的制度的较量和竞争，复杂和激烈程度超乎想象，但是在核武器时代，中美之间发生大规模战争的可能性不大，双方的竞争和冲突更多的会通过科技战、贸易战、舆论战外交战等方式展开。在台海南海等地区，两国可能会发生军事冲突，但升级为全面核大战的可能性也很小。总之，美国要把中国视为敌手，这是必然的，在今后很长一段时间中美关系都会处在紧张的状态。甚至会升级恶化，跟谁上台做美国总统并没有多大的关系。拜登上来之后也必然会竭尽全力遏制中国，两国能做的就是管控冲突的程度和范围，避免发生大规模的战争，避免发生核大战。中国目前处于崛起的关键阶段，还是要坚持深化改革和扩大开放，加快产业结构的转型升级，提升科技核心竞争力，以我为主，不让美国带乱节奏。中华民族的伟大复兴是历史的必然，是任何力量也阻挡不了的。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/theasiaweb.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u672a\u547d\u540d_\u526f\u672c-1065_meitu_1_\u526f\u672c.jpg?fit=800%2C420","views":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11282,"url":"http:\/\/theasiaweb.com\/2021\/01\/26\/%e5%89%9b%e4%b8%8a%e5%8f%b0%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%8d%e5%90%88%ef%bc%9f%e7%9c%be%e8%ad%b0%e9%99%a2%e9%a0%98%e8%a2%96%e5%90%83%e9%86%8b%ef%bc%9a%e6%8b%9c%e7%99%bb%e5%bf%83%e9%87%8c%e4%b8%ad\/","url_meta":{"origin":10573,"position":0},"title":"\u525b\u4e0a\u53f0\u5c31\u4e0d\u5408\uff1f\u773e\u8b70\u9662\u9818\u8896\u201c\u5403\u918b\u201d\uff1a\u62dc\u767b\u5fc3\u91cc\u4e2d\u570b\u7b2c\u4e00\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c1000\u842c\u4eba\u9084\u6c92\u5de5\u4f5c","date":"January 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