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中國減持超千億美債,82%美國人或拿不出500美元後,事情有新進展 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

中國減持超千億美債,82%美國人或拿不出500美元後,事情有新進展

中國減持超千億美債,82%美國人或拿不出500美元後,事情有新進展
2,576

迹象表明,美国经济因为财富分配极不公平,导致遮丑布或正在被揭开。事情的最新进展是,美国财政部9月8日公布的一份最新报告显示,最富有的1%的美国人年均未缴欠税高达1630亿美元,约占年均6000亿美元未缴欠税总额的28%。同时,最富有的5%的美国人已经累计未缴欠税3070亿美元,所占比重超过总额的一半以上。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

据悉,年均约6000亿美元的欠税规模是“相当惊人的”,这笔数额相当于美国较低收入纳税人缴税总额的90%、美国近23万亿美元GDP的3%。按照这一数据,未来十年美国联邦税收损失将高达7万亿美元。报告指出,在美国,在某种程度上,逃税主要集中在收入分配的顶端人群。而这一现象还将对美国财政举措带来冲击。

而另一项研究显示,2020年在美国,似乎仅650个人的财富增长。截至去年底,美国亿万富翁拥有4万亿美元的财富,占该国所有私人财富的3.5%。美国亿万富翁的财富是美国最低的50%的家庭(约1.6亿人)所拥有财富的两倍。不仅于此,数周前的另一组研究表明,在美国,前0.1%的财富集中在美国少数精英贪婪的手中。对于大多数美国工薪阶层来说,实际工资几十年来几乎没有变动。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

美国金融网站Zerohedge前不久根据Highland对2,000名美国人进行的一项调查显示,高达82%的受访者表示,如果不借钱,他们将无法支付500美元的紧急开支。而据美联储连续两年的报告显示,在美国,有40%的人拿不出400美元的现金来急用,或者需要借钱或卖东西才行。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

另有数据显示,任何一个晚上,都有超过60万美国人无家可归。这都是美国经济近年几乎无法逃避的现象。这都表明,美联储开启巨量美元印钞机后,其实真正受益的似乎只有离印钞机最近的那些华尔街精英们和资本大鳄。与此同时,美国经济的债务大山越堆越高。

目前,美国金融体系的总债务已经达到约86万亿美元的天文数字。而美国的许多富人开始选择逃脱债务责任。过去一些月份,美国一些州就发生了大规模百万富翁撤离的事件。例如,仅在伊利诺伊州,截至7月底,大约7000名百万富翁突然逃离了伊利诺伊州,真实上演现实版“出埃及记”,而背后的原因正是由于该州面临潜在债务危机。穆迪表示,伊利诺伊州养老金资金不足,再次可能会导致信贷进一步恶化,这取决于资金不足的程度。换言之,这些伊利诺伊州的富人不愿意为此背负平均债务。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

美媒称,现在的美国经济存在着一个巨大的养老金庞氏骗局。据美国社会保障和医疗保险受托人报告显示,到2035年,美国的社会养老保险将被耗尽。与此同时,夏威夷、密西西比、阿拉斯加等多个州也上演了同样的现实版“出埃及记”画面。而能撤离的也都是百万富翁或收入更高的富翁阶层,这种债务负担后果使得美国金融市场体系处于危险中。彭博社稍早前报道分析称,大流行或加剧美国债务危机的进程。

而对于欠债上瘾的美国经济,720 Global公司的创始人Michael Lebowitz也表示,大多数美国消费者,尤其是处于底层的80%的人群,已经把能借的钱都借了,未来这些债务的偿还压力将像一条湿毛巾一样,拖累着美国经济增长和家庭财富的积累。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

事情的另一个新进展,截至9月13日,美国联邦债务总额已经正式突破28.75万亿美元的天文数字。亿万富翁吉姆·罗杰斯多次警告,美国是背负债务最多的国家,伴随债务与印钞的无处不在,迟早都会付出代价的。然而,由于多年以来高度依赖债务,导致此时的美国经济离开债务几乎寸步难行。甚至美财政部稍早前还暗示将要考虑发行长达100年期的美国国债。高盛分析师还建议,可以考虑发行1000年期的美国国债。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

虽然上述提议都没有被采纳,但却表明,美国经济欠债已成瘾。而正如罗杰斯所言,美国债务经济或正在陷入更大的困境之中。在7月31日时,美国联邦的债务上限已经到期,对此,美财长耶伦不止一次发出或将发生债务和金融危机的警告。

她最近一次的警告是在9月8日,她表示,若债务上限不被提高,美国将在10月份拖欠国债,美国的金库很可能将在10月份耗尽。而根据美联储的资产负债表显示,截至上周一,美国财政部普通账户 (TGA)在纽约联邦储备银行的余额只有 2970 亿美元。经济学家Lou Crandall表示,美财政部将在10月22日之前用完资金。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

耶伦同时担心无法偿还债务会使美国经济和美元的信用受到怀疑。不过,按美国福克斯商业电视台主持人斯图尔特·瓦尼指出,美国从未在债务上毁约。如果这么做,谁会再把钱借给我们(美国)呢?

耶伦认为,即使是最终债务上限得以被提高,美国消费者和企业的信用也将被损害,并对美国的信用评级产生负面影响。的确,正如耶伦的担忧,事实上,在美国经济遮羞布不断被揭开的过程中,全球多国央行已经持续掀起了美债抛售潮。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

过去三年间,全球至少30个美债的海外持有国在不同月份累计抛售了规模高达2万亿美元的美国国债。美国媒体CNBC报道称,当全球大买家大举抛售美债时,美国经济受到的冲击可能会是“核”级别的。亿万富翁雷.达里奥数周前分析预测,不排除主要买家接下去大幅度减持美债的可能性。

中国减持超千亿美债,82%美国人或拿不出500美元后,事情有新进展

值得一提的是,美财政部最新报据显示(美债央行数据延后两个月惯例),截至今年6月,中国连续四个月抛售,累计抛售423亿美债。总量降至1.062万亿美元。自2018年以来,已经累计减持了高达超千亿美元的美国国债。累计抛售的美债数量已远超过德国持有的美债816亿美元的数量。(完)

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