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下一個阿富汗?緬甸或爆發全面內戰,美英法澳會不會趁亂出兵? – 有海水的地方就有中國人

下一個阿富汗?緬甸或爆發全面內戰,美英法澳會不會趁亂出兵?

下一個阿富汗?緬甸或爆發全面內戰,美英法澳會不會趁亂出兵?
2,415

暴风雨正在加速到来。

9月7日,当世界都在关注阿富汗局势之际,亚洲另一个国家缅甸,传来了令人不安的消息。越来越多的迹象表明,如果美国选边站、为昂山素季支持者提供军事支持,缅甸没准就会成为下一个阿富汗或叙利亚。

具体情况大致是这样的。

第一,缅甸军方逮捕昂山素季后,民盟及昂山素季支持者,在缅甸各地举行了声势浩大的抗议游行,但没有撼动缅甸军方。



第二,与呼吁缅甸各方“坐下来谈”的亚洲国家不同,美英法德澳等西方国家,纷纷选边支持昂山素季、谴责缅甸军方。3月31日,美国宣布,美国外交官及其家属,必须立刻离开缅甸,随后多国纷纷从缅甸撤离人员。

以美国为首的西方国家,明确告诉缅甸军方,必须释放昂山素季,如若不然,西方就会让缅甸军方知道什么叫“得不偿失”。

第三,缅甸军方没有妥协。很快,美国欧盟就对缅甸军方发起了制裁,在当时,五角大楼接收了新导弹,莫里森临阵换帅、提名鹰派达顿为新澳大利亚国防长。此外,美欧澳大利亚还在缅甸家门口举行了联合军演。

就在世界以为“美国即将出兵缅甸”时,拜登选择了就此罢休。

第四,抗议游行失败之后,缅甸民盟与昂山素季支持者,选择了组建临时政府与“人民国防军”的方式,去和缅甸军方分庭抗礼。

除了呼吁缅甸民众加入外,临时政府还与克钦独立军、果敢等缅甸武装,加强了对话,且获得了很多缅甸武装支持。

第五,不久前,美国务卿布林肯再次表示,世界各国应该携手针对缅甸军方,并让缅甸民盟重新执掌缅甸。

9月7日,沉淀已久的临时政府,选择了对缅甸军方宣战。缅甸临时政府表示,缅甸将进入紧急状态,在此期间,各地的“人民国防军”将进攻缅甸军方,呼吁缅甸民众接下来别轻易外出。

此外,临时政府还请求缅甸武装、边防部队和民兵组织联手出招,以彻底“剿灭”缅甸军队。



随后,临时政府控制的三个军事基地,很快就出动了战机,而且地面部队也在行动。作为回应,缅甸军方立刻调兵遣将,缅甸内战随时都可能爆发。

不得不提的是,在缅甸临时政府发表声明之前,缅甸武装已经和缅甸军方打了起来。

这是昂山素季被捕、缅甸冲突升级以来,缅甸局势最混乱的时间段,稍有不慎,缅甸就会陷入内战。

至少有三个细节值得注意。

首先,论实力,临时政府与缅甸军方相差甚远,缅甸人口只有5000多万,但缅甸军队人数却超过了50万,而且还拥有大批俄式装备。



因此,在没有外援支持的情况下,一旦战斗打响,缅甸“人民国防军”面临的困境,就和之前阿富汗的北方联盟一样,想扭转局势非常难。

其次,最大的不确定因素在于,美英法德澳有着什么举动。冲突升级后,美国一直都在支持昂山素季,且各大缅甸武装对缅甸军方并不友好。因此,如果美国趁乱介入冲突,向缅甸“人民国防军”提供武器、情报支持,谁输谁赢,真的不好说。

一方面,昂山素季拥有大量支持者,所以缅甸“人民国防军”招募士兵不会太难,而缅甸军方拥有的装备,与美国欧盟肯定存在巨大差距。另一方面,在美国坚持重返亚太的情况下,不排除美国直接出兵缅甸的可能。



说到底,联合国是谴责缅甸军方的,且在施压缅甸军方这件事上,美英法德采取的是“整齐划一”的姿态。换句话说,如果拜登决定出兵缅甸,获得国会批准不会那么难。

还有就是,美国一直都想在东南亚打开缺口,以更好地合围对手,但越南却不领情。在这种情况下,拜登转变战略、退而求其次控制缅甸,对美国而言不失为好选择。

一旦美国掌控缅甸局势,比如扶持亲美势力执掌缅甸、在缅甸建立军事基地,拜登很快就能施压越南。等到那时,美国在东南亚站稳跟脚将变得更容易。

缅甸冲突由来已久且非常复杂,如果美国真打算煽风点火坐收渔利,的确不难。问题在于,美国到底有没有介入冲突、扶持亲美势力的意图。

至于拜登有何布局,普京是否能阻止这一切,谁也不知道,且看美国接下来怎么出招吧。

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