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孟加拉國的崛起之路:向中國抄作業,昔日窮國人均GDP已超印度 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

孟加拉國的崛起之路:向中國抄作業,昔日窮國人均GDP已超印度

孟加拉國的崛起之路:向中國抄作業,昔日窮國人均GDP已超印度
8,938

孟加拉国曾经是贫穷的代名词。然而在过去几年,孟加拉国成为了第二大的纺织出口国(仅次于中国)。2020年,该国的人均GDP如果以美元计算,已经超越了其邻国印度。孟加拉国过去为何如此贫穷?如今又是如何崛起的?

学习东亚的孟加拉国

根据IMF的估计,印度的人均GDP(以美元计)在2020年是$1877,孟加拉国则是$2064。这是有史以来第一次,孟加拉国的人均GDP超过了他的邻国。当然,每个国家的币值都不一样,如果把货币的因素扣除,改而以实质消费力计算(以PPP为单位),印度其实人均实质GDP其实略高于孟加拉。

在2020年一篇关于印度的报导里面,作者Amit Kapoor先解释了孟加拉人均GDP之所以会超过印度的「短期因素」:作为一个依赖服务业跟农业的大国,印度经济因为年份特殊而受到了打击。

然而这篇报导也不得不承认,长期来说,孟加拉国以突飞猛进的速度,试图超车印度:在2010年,印度的GDP总量是孟加拉国的14倍,但现在只剩下8倍,而印度人均GDP在2016年是孟加拉国的1.6倍,现在已经被超车了。同样的事情也发生在巴基斯坦,只是作为苦主,巴基斯坦早了几年被孟加拉国超车,可见于下图:

在上述的报导里,Amit Kapoor认为孟加拉成长的关键,就是「抄作业」,抄谁的作业?东亚的韩国、中国等「出口导向」的国家。简单来说,孟加拉国通过学习东亚,正在南亚崛起。

A Basket Case:孟加拉国的开局,是一场残酷的悲剧

中国人对基辛格(Henry Kissinger)并不陌生。孟加拉人也对他不陌生。1971年,孟加拉国刚从巴基斯坦独立出来,基辛格便认为孟加拉国是个「Basket Case」,如果有些公司不赚钱,美国人会称这些公司为Basket Case,如果有些人失业待在家里,要靠亲朋好友接济,美国人也可能会说他们是Basket Case。

基辛格说孟加拉国是个Basket Case,翻得白话点,就是说这个国家迟早会变成个穷鬼。近半世纪以来的英语报导,每每提到孟加拉国,大部分都是贫穷、饥荒、天灾频仍等负面新闻,在英文报导上频频出现:Basket Case这个词汇。

三招化为一招:加工出口区、外资、纺织业

那么,孟加拉国是怎么崛起的呢?其战略便是学习韩国、中国的出口导向政策,但跟东亚国家不一样之处在于,孟加拉国将「加工出口区」、「吸引外资」、「发展纺织业」这三个在东亚被视作不同功能的政策,合而为一。这三种不同的产业政策,被孟加拉巧妙地结合在一起。

在独立战争之后,孟加拉国大规模的国有化了许多产业,实施国有式的计划经济,加上政治混乱,国有化的政策成效很差。于是在独立后不久,于1974年,孟加拉国政府便开始渐进式的经济改革,将货币大幅贬值,让私人企业得以参予一部份的产业,并且提供投资的租税减免,隔年更重启孟加拉国的股票市场(孟加拉在达卡跟吉大港各有一个股票市场)。

不过随着政治的混乱,经济改革的脚步缓慢,等到1980年时,经由国会授权,开始建造加工出口区。1982年6月加快了改革的速度,叫作「新产业政策」(New Industrial Policies),私有化了许多国营企业,更将「出口导向」制定为产业政策的目标。

随着第一个加工出口区:吉大港加工出口区成立,需要大量便宜劳力的纺织业,似乎顺理成章地成为了孟加拉国得以发展的行业,但本身缺少资金跟技术,而来自韩国的Youngone(永元纺织),就成为了孟加拉纺织业的领头羊。

集中在加工出口区的纺织业,逐渐成为了孟加拉国的出口领头羊。近年来的孟加拉国成为世界第二大的纺织出口国,仅次于中国。孟加拉的纺织业又集中在成衣业,搭上了欧美快速时尚的庞大衣料需求。近年来孟加拉纺织业的产值占了80%的总出口产值、12%的GDP。

纺织业吸引了庞大的外资,比方说韩国的Youngone、日本的Honda,在加工出口区里的工厂,有约半数是100%外国投资,剩下的则是外国与本地投资。

比方说韩国Youngone的战略,就非常的韩国: 垂直整合。

今天的韩国财阀之一SK集团,便是东亚最早开始做垂直整合的纺织厂。由日本合资开设在朝鲜殖民地的「京都纺织」,战后由韩国本地人收购,改名叫Sunkyong,这便是SK集团的前身。在1973年,SK集团自己又拓展到石化产业,自己制作纺织的材料,垂直整合让SK开始能够一条龙的生产,同时期也开始跟印度的官员打交道,希望能够拓展南亚的市场。

今天的SK财阀的重心早已经不在纺织业了,但我们却在孟加拉的Youngone身上看到类似的影子,Youngone的规模巨大,也强调自己能够垂直整合,从制作纺织材料到下游纺织的一条龙生产。未来看到Youngone进军其他产业,变成位处孟加拉国的韩国财阀,我们或许也不会太意外。

小结

因为血腥的内战,孟加拉国曾经是贫穷的代名词。但通过将「加工出口区、吸引外资、发展纺织业」三者结合在一起,让该国的经济成为南亚冠军。

目前孟加拉国除了正在积极拓展高速公路、MRT等基础建设,也成立科学园区继续外商来投资电子业,然而,孟加拉国的乡村依然极端贫穷,工业化集中在加工口岸。今天孟加拉的寻常百姓如果要创业,融资相当困难,如何让普通民众分享经济快速发展的红利还是一个难点。

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