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抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴
2,250

近日,印度商務部發布了印度2020年的臨時貿易數據,數據顯示,中印兩國2020年的雙邊貿易額為777億美元,儘管這一數字低於2019年的855億美元,但是已經足夠讓中國取代美國,成為印度最大的貿易夥伴。

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

2020年6月,中印在邊境地區爆發了嚴重的對峙事件,之後印度總理莫迪趁機封禁了數百款中國應用,還提高了中國投資的准入門檻,並呼籲印度自力更生,大力推動「印度製造」。抵制了半年中國貨,結果2020年印度與中國的雙邊貿易逆差接近400億美元,中國不光是印度最大的貿易夥伴,也是印度最大的貿易逆差來源國,這也暴露出了印度嚴重依賴中國重型機械、電信設備和家用電器等商品的窘境。

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

2020年,印度從中國的進口總額為587億美元,超過了印度從美國和阿聯酋的進口總額,隨着中印邊境的緊張局勢有所緩和,印度將逐步放寬中資的准入標準,有消息人士稱,印度將批准45項來自中國的投資,大多數來自製造業,其中不少投資在去年被擱置了。可以看到,隨着兩國經濟往來的逐步恢復,未來印度經濟對中國的依賴還有可能繼續增加。

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

總體來說,中印兩國的關係可以概括成「政冷經熱」,政治上高度緊張,但是經濟領域的往來卻十分火熱,從某種程度上說,經濟上的頻繁往來有利於緩和政治的緊張關係,但是並不能從根本上改善兩國關係。

印度國內有一個十分熱門的問題:印度何時會超過中國?受印度媒體的影響,不少印度人都認為,印度幾乎不怎麼落後於中國,還有一部分人認為,印度會在幾年時間內追趕上中國,但事實真的是這樣嗎?

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

實際上,除非印度開始大量在其國內創造資本,印度的經濟才可以趕上,甚至超過中國經濟,現在的問題是,印度沒有能力創造足夠的國內資本,製造業孱弱,甚至連生活必需品都需要靠進口。無法激發國內的生產力,無法維持資本的持續產生,也是所有不發達國家的核心問題。

抵制了個寂寞?2020年中國取代美國,成為印度最大貿易夥伴

不可否認的是,印度的發展潛力的確很大,印度有着世界第二多的人口,人口也主要以青壯年為主,這也意味着印度的市場規模和人口優勢都將十分可觀。與此同時,印度國內的問題也很嚴重,規模龐大的人口以及以青壯年為主的人口結構,利用好了是人口紅利,利用不好就是社會動盪的隱患。另外,印度這麼多年始終缺少一場自上而下的革命,導致生產力嚴重受阻,高層內部黨爭嚴重,推行政策時阻力重重。

受疫情影響,印度2020年的經濟出現了較大衰退,這是給莫迪的一場大考。中國是印度重要的鄰國,中印兩國最理想的關係應該是合作共贏,此時選擇繼續與中國「脫鈎」,將會對印度經濟帶來不可忽視的負面影響,吃虧的還是印度自己。

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