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日媒「稱讚」:美國幹得好,把中國逼上這條道路 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

日媒「稱讚」:美國幹得好,把中國逼上這條道路

日媒「稱讚」:美國幹得好,把中國逼上這條道路
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日媒「稱讚」:美國幹得好,把中國逼上這條道路

《日本時報》2月21日文章,原題:中國如何加入制裁博弈

在成為一個制裁大國的道路上,中國正穩步邁進。如果說模仿是最真誠的恭維,那麼美國的政策制定者應將此視為稱讚。

隨着與特朗普政府關係的破裂,中國受到華盛頓制裁工具越來越大的打擊,北京從中吸取了教訓。鮮有專家和媒體注意到,中國已悄然擺脫對限制性措施的歷史性厭惡,開始建立一套類似於美國制裁的工具箱。其結果是,如今中國更願意、也更有能力將經濟武器化,以贏得外交政策的勝利,並阻止外部力量對其公司的打擊。因此,拜登政府時期及以後,北京將越來越成為一支抗衡華盛頓制裁霸權的力量,並成為全球商業中的對等標準制定者。

中國是制裁的後來者,之前並不願參與此類博弈。這既出於意識形態原因,也與中國以前時不時成為被制裁對象的事實有關。此外還有一些實際考慮。制裁的力量來自能夠有效阻止進入某個熱門經濟體或使用國際貨幣,而中國加入世貿組織以後才開始慢慢積累這種影響力。因此,中國採取懲罰性行動始於非正式措施。自2010年以來,中國至少九次以經濟報復的方式懲罰其他國家政府侵犯自己的利益,包括暫停進口、阻止出口或旅遊,或對在華經營的外企採取監管行動。而特朗普政府的無情打壓,促使北京以更正式的方式和能力來補充這種「有中國特色的制裁」。

僅過去兩年,美國商務部出口管制名單就增加400多個中國個人和實體。這種情況下,北京開始開發反擊工具。2020年中國頒布一項以國家安全為由的出口管制法,還公布「不可靠實體」清單。這份清單看起來是直接受到美國商務部相關實體名單的啟發,被列入清單會影響到外國企業的在華業務。今年1月初頒布的一項新規,令中國當局能對遵守外國制裁的跨國公司進行懲罰。若中國公民或公司因其他企業遵守外國法律而在經濟上受到損害,他們也可在中國法院起訴要求賠償。實際上,按照這些規則,若跨國企業遵守美國的制裁(要求),在中國就會陷入法律困境。

因此,拜登如今面對的是一個擁有制裁工具箱的北京。中國可憑此挑戰美國作為全球商業頭號標準制定者的傳統角色,並削弱美國在全球金融體系中的主導地位。北京作為美國制裁對手的崛起仍在進行中,但目前可得出一些結論。

首先,北京的框架側重於阻止進入中國經濟並獲得科技出口。考慮到中國消費市場的規模及其在5G專利方面的主導地位,此類威脅不可小覷,但這也隱含着承認中國的金融實力仍相對有限。其次,北京正建立一種目前仍不願使用的制裁威懾力。中國的出口管制法具有域外效力,若境外個人或實體被認為危及中國國家安全,中國政府可追究其責任。但懲罰跨國公司的相關新規模糊不清,且是開放式的——這兩點都是威懾的特徵。現階段,此類工具只是向拜登政府傳達出這樣的信息:針對中國明星企業的限制性措施是北京的一條紅線。若越過這條線,美國的在華經濟利益可能受到打擊。

因此,美中之間可能形成一種相互的經濟威懾。雙方仍將使用限制性措施,但會在心照不宣的範圍內,從而至少在短期內形成更穩定的經濟外交。

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