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和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」

和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」
2,056

木叔這篇國際評論來談一談中國和印度之間的關係。

大家都已經知道2月12日中國和印度同時宣布,雙方在班公湖同時有組織後撤,正式脫離接觸的消息。

這對中印關係來講非常重要,對雙方維護邊境地區的穩定和安寧來講也非常重要。

要知道這是雙方經過了九輪軍長級會談之後所達成的共識,這意味著中國和印度在過去半年多時間內最嚴重的衝突逐漸緩和,因此這對兩國關係未來的發展以及本地區的和平穩定來說,都具有很重大的意義。

不過,木叔同時注意到一些朋友對此事的表態還是比較悲觀的,認為中印之間的共識與合作僅僅是短期行為,長期來講雙方還是會爆出重大分歧。

甚至有一些人認為,中印關係和中美關係,以及中國和澳大利亞之間的關係,中國和英國之間的關係是差不多的。

和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」

但是木叔強調一件事:中印關係有兩件兩個底線,這意味著中印關係目前還並不是類似中澳關係等嚴峻的雙邊關係。

中印關係的兩個底線是:

第一是中印無論什麼時候都在尋求接觸,而且有更多的溝通交流渠道;

第二是中印雙方儘管面臨嚴重困難,但是都在尋找共識,而且也達成了共識,未來可能還會不斷的擴大共識。

這兩點是中澳關係,包括川普時代的中美關係以及目前的中英關係暫時都不具備的。

和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」

從第一點來說,中印關係接觸和互動的頻率、要遠大於中國和其他西方國家關係。

比如中國和澳大利亞之間已經爆發爭端數月,但澳大利亞部長級官方至今沒有對華溝通和交流的渠道。

而中國和印度之間的直接接觸和交流,這半年以來至少已經少了9次,這就是雙方的軍長級會晤。

不僅是這點,而且中國和印度之間的文化方面合作與交流也在推進。

比如說這一段我國駐印度大使通過各種方式,參加了印度國內舉行的多種活動,這對加深中印兩國的友好合作是非常有益的。

但是這種氛圍,在中澳關係之間還是比較少見的。

和中澳關係不一樣!中印關係有「兩大底線」

就第二點而言,中國和印度都在努力尋求雙方的最大公約數,也就是避免關係自由落體的共識。

最明顯的就是兩國的外長几個月前會晤就達成了5項共識,這些共識也獲得了兩國更高層級的認同,成為指導數月以來或者說衝突以來兩國關係不斷發展的重要的指針。

那麼雙方的數次邊境會晤,包括軍長級的會晤,也都是按照雙方更高層次的共識所進行的。終於在2月達成了雙方都脫離接觸的協議。

這就說明為了彼此關係的發展,中印都避免更大範圍關係的失控,始終把找到共識作為維護關係基本面的基礎來看待。即使面臨數十年來最嚴峻的邊境危機,雙方都沒放棄共識。

而中澳關係卻缺乏這種共識。儘管我們一再強調澳大利亞應該行邁出改善關係的第一步,解鈴還需系鈴人,然而澳大利亞總理也好,該國部長也好,反覆強調他們不會讓步。

也就是說中澳之間,目前對緩和兩國關係的共識還沒有達成,這點與中印關係正在相向而行,確實是有很多不同之處的。

所以不能把中印關係看成中澳關係,還是有本質不同。

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