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美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」
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2021年02月13日

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

隨著川普的下台,中美關係面臨調整,一般情況下,這種調整無非是兩個方面,要麼中美關係更加惡劣,要麼中美關係得到改善,但最近的情況卻有些詭異。

據《人民日報》2月11日的報導,正值中國農曆除夕佳節之際,美國新任總統拜登與中國領導人通話,兩國元首就牛年春節「相互拜年」,並就雙邊關係和重大國際問題「深入交換意見」。在通話中,拜登總統罕見承諾,美國願與中國「相互尊重」,並以此為基礎展開建設性對話,「增進相互理解」,「避免誤解誤判」。報導稱,中美領導人一致認為,這次通話「將向世界釋放積極信號」,並強調將繼續就雙方共同關心的問題「保持密切聯繫」。

毫無疑問,在中美關係持續緊張的背景下,拜登總統主動在中國新春佳節之際向中國「拜年」,這顯然是在對中國示好,也是中美關係即將「解凍」的強烈信號,拜登的講話內容也證實了這一點,超級大國首次明確表示願意與中國「相互尊重」,這在以前幾乎是從沒有過的。然而需要指出的是,幾乎就在拜登向中國致以新春祝賀的同時,美國三艘航母卻罕見齊聚亞太地區,欲闖中國南海,釋放的信號同樣非比尋常。

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

拜登總統向中國人民拜年,並強調要管控分歧、避免誤判,而美軍卻加大在中國沿海地區的軍力部署,這到底唱的是哪一出,白宮和五角大樓打起來了嗎?箇中原因頗為複雜。首先,拜登的確打算與中國改善關係。在當選之前,拜登就曾經多次表示,要取消對中國商品加征的關稅;在當選之後就任之前,據俄衛星通訊社1月17日的報導,拜登就宣布將藉助「真理和科學」治國,暗示將在技術上同中國競爭,「不會亂來」。

在就任之後,據環球網2月8日的報導,拜登總統公開表示,儘管很可能存在「激烈的競爭」,但「中美不需要對抗」。因此,就拜登上台前後的言行來看,拜登的確打算與中國改善關係,至少不會像川普那麼「蠻幹」,在軍事上採取激烈措施,不符合拜登的執政理念,事實上也不符合美國的利益,就算美國能夠取勝,也會最終丟掉霸權。如此就可以解釋為何拜登會試圖改善中美關係,在春節前夕對中國示好了。

其次,在總統示好的情況下,美國航母要齊聚亞太和南海,一來,這是川普政策的「慣性」,就算拜登要改善中美關係,那也不是一蹴而就的,川普的支持者和共和黨一直將對抗中國視為最大的使命。《環球時報》2月9日就報導稱,拜登上台沒多久,就遭到了共和黨「兩次逼宮」,共和黨要求拜登澄清對華政策,繼承過去4年由川普總統設計的「富有成效」的對華戰略,這事實上是要拜登在對華施壓的道上走到黑。

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

二來,美軍是一支富有侵略性的力量,說實話,軍隊不需要考慮和平,只需要考慮戰爭,探索如何打仗,如何贏得戰爭;什麼時候和平,什麼時候開戰,那是政治家決定的事情,軍隊不需要考慮和平問題,那不是你的專業。所以政治家改善關係,而軍事家磨刀霍霍並不矛盾,畢竟中美關係目前還沒到「握手言和」的地步。因此,在中國持續崛起的前夕,大量美國艦艇游弋在中國南海或沿海地區,這是「常態」。

最後,拜登正在奉行一種高明的戰略,那就是以一種不易為人覺察的方式,離間中俄兩國的關係,此前川普做的太明顯了,讓人一看就知道,這傢伙想離間中俄關係。拜登就高明多了,不僅方式更為隱秘,而且「爭取」的對象也改變了,由俄羅斯變成了中國。據環球網2月7日的報導,莫斯科國立大學副教授鮑里斯·梅茹耶夫就表示,拜登的戰略計劃是「分裂俄中同盟」,「因為俄中同盟對西方不利」。

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

拜登要離間中俄關係,就不能死死地將中俄兩國「壓在一起」,想分裂中俄,先要美國後退一步,讓緊密的中俄關係能夠有「松」下來的餘地,否則美國死死壓制中俄兩國,想讓兩國不結盟都不可能。所以,拜登很可能以改善中美關係的契機(誘餌),伺機讓中俄之間的合作出現裂痕,這是有可能實現的,比如說,同樣報導中美兩國元首首次通話,俄羅斯的立場和內容幾乎就和中國官媒截然相反。

美國總統「示好」另有它圖:離間中俄兩國,然後「各個擊破」

△華媒:美國在示好 俄媒:拜登在挑釁

俄衛星通訊社在2月11日的報導中,就隻字不提拜登向中國「拜年」,隻字不提美國要與中國「相互尊重」,而是將重點放在拜登的「硬話」上,宣稱拜登「對北京的行動感到憂慮」,「將捍衛美國的利益」。很顯然,一旦中美接近,俄羅斯的心態是會非常微妙變化的,莫斯科不擔心是不可能的,拜登及其團隊不可能利用這一點,如果運用得當,或會在中俄之間埋下「互不信任」的毒刺,今後中俄將很難深度合作,便於美國「各個擊破」。

不管是示好還是示強,美國都不會輕易放棄遏制中國崛起的企圖,大炮巨艦是一種方式,糖衣炮彈也是一種方式。關鍵是別把美國的戰略性欺騙,看成是真正的關係改善,並從戰略高度(包括考慮盟友反應)最大化自己的利益。

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