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拜登拉攏歐洲計劃遭閉門羹,馬克龍帶頭唱反調:歐美關係好不等於必須聯美抗華 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

拜登拉攏歐洲計劃遭閉門羹,馬克龍帶頭唱反調:歐美關係好不等於必須聯美抗華

拜登拉攏歐洲計劃遭閉門羹,馬克龍帶頭唱反調:歐美關係好不等於必須聯美抗華
2,102

2021年02月07日

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

图为会议视频截图

对于法国人来说,这一教训不仅深刻,而且记忆犹新,因为2011年正是法国率先拉开了轰炸利比亚的战争序曲。

在2月4日华盛顿智库大西洋理事会的会议上,马克龙就美欧关系发表了自己的看法。法国总统称,即使欧美价值观相近,也不应联合起来对付中国,因为这有可能导致冲突的发生。

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

马克龙仍希望维系现如今的国际秩序

按照马克龙的说法,美欧联合施压只会让中国在可能与美欧开展合作的一系列问题上采取激进态度,并以更加明确的方式来维护自身的权益。

相对的,如果能够让中国在现行的国际秩序下行事,如召开五常峰会、加强应对气候变化的合作、促使中国接受更多国际组织的约束等等,更符合法国以及欧洲的利益。

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

拜登的算盘打得很精明

拜登自上台以来一直试图弥合特朗普造成的美国与盟友的裂痕,多次提出西方国家应抱团应对中国,并希望召开所谓的“全球民主峰会”来协调各项事宜。马克龙的这番表态可以说是对美方的回应,虽然称不上是严词拒绝,却也别有一番深意。

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

法国现如今面临的危机,也是欧盟现如今面临的危机

马克龙委婉拒绝拜登,不愿引爆中美冲突背后有着自己的三点盘算:

1.马克龙讲话中更多以欧洲、欧盟的视角来看待美欧和中欧关系

事实上,无论是两次大战的教训还是冷战的经验都证明,只有当欧洲分裂时,美国才能够最大程度地从欧洲获取利益,并且将欧洲绑在自己的战车上。最经典的案例发生在20世纪末到21世纪初,刚刚起步的欧元迎头装上了科索沃、阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚五场战争,国际化的努力最终被美国人扼杀于摇篮。

马克龙显然清楚这一切,但是由于欧洲作为一个整体船大难掉头,无法在对美和对华政策上贸然做出巨大的调整;而欧洲内部各个效果船小好调头,可以相对更加灵活地选择自己的外交政策,因此如何整合内部仍是马克龙现如今需要头疼的问题,在各种外交场和强调欧洲而非法国可以视为马克龙为此所做出的努力。

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

欧洲在疫苗方面有求于中国令马克龙感到颜面无光

2.欧洲仍然残留有大量对中国的偏见,但正在不断更正

马克龙有意无意地提出了一个论断,那就是中国维护自身核心利益和合法权益的努力,有可能与欧洲的利益产生冲突。更进一步说,这其实是欧洲希望以自己的规则来约束中国,从而实现自身利益最大化,而非双方共同利益的最大化。

这事实上就是一种偏见,一种全方位的偏见,坚定地认为欧美的道路才是唯一正确的道路的偏见。当然,在现实一而再再而三地打击下,特别是在新冠疫情的剧烈冲击下,马克龙或多或少地能够意识到中国的存在对于欧洲有着怎样的警示作用,尽管碍于根深蒂固的偏见无法明言,但是努力促进中欧合作,以期偏见在未来能够消除,这一点他还是做得到的。

拜登拉拢欧洲计划遭闭门羹,马克龙带头唱反调:欧美关系好不等于必须联美抗华

如何能够统一欧洲内部的思想,将会是德法所要面对的最大难题

3.欧洲未来四年的局势大概率将由法国主导

此次讲话中,马克龙事实上展现出了法国作为欧洲领导者所应当具备的气质,而这一点客观地说是建立在默克尔即将退休的基础之上的。

此前,拜登已经宣布不会从德国撤军,这意味着未来四年美德关系仍将十分紧密,甚至于不排除德国会在包括北溪二号、汽车出口等问题上对美国大幅让步。

这种情况下,在拉舍特不具备默克尔那般足以服众的威望的情况下,在德国几乎铁定要在欧洲一体化进程上开倒车的情况下,马克龙的表态,无论是此番针对中美两国的表态,还是未来针对俄罗斯的表态,都将是法国主动挑起重担,主导欧盟议程的体现。

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