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墨西哥前總統:世界走到對抗與合作岔路口 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

墨西哥前總統:世界走到對抗與合作岔路口

墨西哥前總統:世界走到對抗與合作岔路口
2,401

(文/埃内斯托·塞迪略)最近四年,基于规则的国际体系及其多边机构,遭到了前所未有的攻击。尽管对多边体系的破坏是很多原因造成的,但作为规则破坏者的美国比其他国家更需承担责任。

美国恶劣行径害人害己

尽管特朗普政府对国际体系的所有攻击实际上都不利于美国的国家利益,但美国还是实施了这些攻击行为,这种情况在特朗普政府的贸易政策中尤其明显。

第一,特朗普政府想要纠正美国经济多年来存在的贸易赤字和经常账户赤字问题。为了达到这个目标,他们采用了错误的方法——陆续攻击主要贸易伙伴,强迫对方达成协议,妄图解决与对方的贸易失衡问题。这种方法不仅忽视了现代比较优势理论的基本概念和基本国民收入核算恒等式的基本原理,而且将国际贸易视为零和博弈的战场,导致美国政府妄图使用作茧自缚的保护主义方式来解决外部不平衡的问题。

第二,特朗普执政后,美国退出了跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP),没有给出任何经济或地缘政治的理由。特朗普的决定不仅使美国蒙受了巨大的经济损失,还丧失了在亚太地区的地缘政治影响力。今年11月15日,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)已正式签署。这一目前全球最大的自由贸易协定的成功,凸显了特朗普的无能,做出了退出TPP这样伤害美国利益的事情。

第三,特朗普荒谬地迫使墨西哥和加拿大重新谈判北美自由贸易协定。在很大程度上,这削弱了北美在全球市场上的竞争力。

第四,特朗普政府通过阻止任命争端解决机制上诉机构的新成员,让世界贸易组织(WTO)寸步难行。事实是,美国是使用争端解决机制最频繁的国家,提起的诉讼量比中国和欧盟的总和还多,并且美国胜诉的比例(91%)高于所有其他国家。

第五,无缘无故发起贸易战是特朗普政府最恶劣的贸易政策。美国对其“友好”的贸易伙伴,如加拿大、墨西哥、巴西和欧洲国家发起贸易战,对钢铁和铝等进口产品任意加征关税。正如许多专家指出的那样,这种行为是明目张胆地藐视法律。

美国政府为证明其对中国的大规模贸易攻击具有合理性而提供了论据,但对这些论据进行严肃的法律和经济分析后发现,美国所谓的理由都是有问题的,甚至是明显非法的。

美国没有赢得特朗普发起的贸易战——事实上,贸易战从来没有赢家,最终是美国的消费者、农民和纳税人为特朗普的愚蠢行为买单。

修复关系需耐心和技巧

全球大国可以选择沿着极有可能导致灾难的道路前进。这条道路摒弃基于规则的国际体系,无视国际合作的价值,重新采取单边或双边途径解决涉及集体利益的问题,扩充军事力量而非关注外交和民生,继续把本质上是本土政策失败导致的社会后果“甩锅”给其他国家,继续把国际贸易、投资和移民视为零和游戏。

简而言之,全球大国正在削弱世界秩序的积极方面,这种秩序是20世纪上半叶人类遭受两次世界大战和一次大萧条后才努力建立起来的。继续走这条路,可能导致历史重演,像过去一样为人类带来巨大的、不必要的和无谓的苦难,甚至比过去更加严重。或者,全球大国和开明的新兴国家可以果断决定携手走另一条道路,那是通向国际和平与繁荣的道路,是最有可能对所有国家都有利的道路。

毋庸置疑,走第二条路,尽管前景光明,但要走上这条路并不容易。往第一条路上走的惯性近年来显著增长,即使对于生活在开放社会的世界公民来说,对抗的世界观也开始形成影响力了。

修复破损的国际关系与国际合作需要耐心、外交技巧和缓慢恢复互信。但我要强调的是,尽管美国在特朗普执政期间做出了恶劣行径,但多边体系的重建和完善需要所有其他利益攸关方的善意和努力。(作者为墨西哥前总统、21世纪理事会主席,本文为作者在2020年“读懂中国”国际会议上的发言节选)

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