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737MAX不想復飛了?美國將制裁中航工業,C919赫然在列 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

737MAX不想復飛了?美國將制裁中航工業,C919赫然在列

737MAX不想復飛了?美國將制裁中航工業,C919赫然在列
2,456

11月18日,在空难、停飞和疫情三重影响下,困扰了近一年的波音737 MAX客机,终于被美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)重新批准恢复飞行资格了。而据法新社报道,在当地时间11月24日,欧盟航空安全监管机构也启动了重新认证波音737 MAX的程序,该机最早可能在2021年1月重返欧洲的天空。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

波音737MAX8重新飞上天空

不过,当初波音研制737 MAX,针对的最大市场是中国,中国民航也是全球第二大民航市场,所以中国的态度至关重要,中国是对人民的生命安全最为负责的国家。由于波音737MAX的事故调查并没有出示让人信服的报告,也没有彻底解决问题的方案,所以中国目前并没有复飞该机的计划。在这种情况下,按道理来说,中国已经成为737 MAX客机能否在全球复飞的关键,甚至连整个波音公司能否经营得下去,都在很大程度上受中国的影响。然而美国政府最近的一番操作,却在不断激怒中国。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

中国是737MAX能否在全球成功复飞的决定因素

据路透社独家报道,特朗普政府在任期的最后不到两个月时间内,正计划宣布89家中国航空航天及其他领域的企业与军方有关系,将限制他们采购美国一系列产品及技术。其中包括中国航空工业,及其旗下的产品,商飞C919客机。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

美国又要制裁C919?

C919在研制过程中,大量采用了美国和欧洲供应商的技术和产品,包括CFM LEAP-1C涡扇发动机、航电系统、燃油系统、电源系统、起落架系统等。公开数据显示,C919目前的国产化率大约为60%。之所以这么多系统采用国外的技术,主要是出于两个方面的考虑。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

C919国产化率大约为60%

首先是国际分工,在美国日趋保守的今天,扛起自由贸易旗帜的是我们,所以我们必须坚持国际合作。其次,C919要想在外国领空、机场飞行和起降,就必须拿到国外民航部门的适航证。而这其中,以美国FAA和欧洲EASA最为重要,但它们是绝对不会轻易将适航证发给C919这样的竞争对手的,因此我们与欧美公司合作,进行利益捆绑,就是为了降低日后获取适航证的难度。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

这是一种比义和团更高明的策略

所以说,C919身上这40%的国外技术和零部件,不是我们不能造,而是一种策略的选择。当然,有些技术,我们也不是轻而易举就能实现的,比如C919的发动机,从项目一开始,就有配套的国产航发CJ1000A。虽然CJ1000A现在已经或者即将在中国试飞院的伊尔76平台上试飞,但成熟起来需要时间。当年涡扇20在伊尔76上试飞了六七年之久,直到最近才正式装备运20。CJ1000A从现在算起,即使有了涡扇20的经验,最快恐怕也要到2025年才能堪用。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

这架伊尔76已经或者即将试飞C919的国产发动机了

不过,好在虽然原计划明后年C919就要投入民航市场进行商业运营,但前几年它的产量肯定不大,因此刚好能够卡住2025年的节点,在2025年之后开始大批量生产也不迟。至于这五年内的飞机用什么发动机,一方面可以用CFM LEAP-1C的备件,另一方面,则可以用涡扇20。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

C919也是可以用涡扇20的

看到这里,很多人可能会惊讶,涡扇20不是军用运输机的发动机吗?用在客机上能行?实际上,涡扇20最早开始研制时,它采用的核心机就是CMF56的技术,也就是波音737和A320原先使用的发动机,所以它天生就有客机发动机的基因,改在C919上使用,没有什么太大问题。无非就是推力、油耗性能不如最新CFM LEAP-1C,这不是关键。C919可以先用5年的涡扇20,然后再改装性能和CFM LEAP-1C相当的CJ-1000A。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

涡扇20的核心机是CMF56

而现在,涡扇20又开始正式装备运20了,说明它的性能已经成熟了,所有的节点刚好卡到位。所以说,我们做事很稳妥的,一切都会有B方案。C919的研制是国家意志,怎么可能因为几只苍蝇的干扰就放弃?美国欧洲不能飞,我们就飞国内航线,我国拥有世界第二大,即将变成世界第一大的民航市场,足以养得起数百上千架C919。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

我们有庞大的国内民航市场,足够养活C919

如果特朗普政府限制中国89家航空航天及其他领域的企业采购美国产品和技术的法案最终得以通过并被执行,对C919会有影响,但最多只会降低C919部分性能,并延缓它大规模投入商业运营的时间,但对于波音公司来说,这可不是什么好消息,至少737MAX系列客机,一辈子都不可能在中国复飞了。737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

国内被停飞的波音737MAX

737MAX不想复飞了?美国将制裁中航工业,C919赫然在列

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