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拜登時代,中美經貿關系會出現哪些變化? – 有海水的地方就有中國人

拜登時代,中美經貿關系會出現哪些變化?

拜登時代,中美經貿關系會出現哪些變化?
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拜登号称“拜振华”,他的当选,对于缓和中美摩擦,促进多边国际合作,或许是个积极的转机。理由如下:

迄今为止,中美之间所有的摩擦本质上都基于利益博弈,无论是贸易战、科技战还是金融战,双方都是为了谋求本国利益最大化而不断和对方斗智斗勇,特朗普时代如此,拜登时代也一样,这是本质。但在形式上,与特朗普的“极端”“情绪化”相比,拜登的行为方式可能会更加理性;

中美座谈会习近平与拜登互相示好- BBC News 中文

政治是一门妥协的艺术。凡是理性的利益之争,最后多半是双方各自让渡一部分自身的利益来达成共识、并谋求彼此“双赢”的结果,两败俱伤不是博弈的目的,也不是政治家的目标。作为两个超级大国,中美之间的关系尤其如此,从职业背景来看,拜登比特朗普更接近于政治家的思维方式,更加倾向于尊重国际规则,因此,中美的经贸谈判将会变得更有弹性、更加可预期;

作为一名老道的政客,拜登更重视在价值观和舆论方面的“政治正确”,对内争取精英阶层的支持,对外争取和更多的国际合作伙伴协同。在外交上,特朗普习惯举刀便砍的单打独斗,而拜登更善于精心策划,结盟而后群殴;如果说特朗普时代中国要面对美国作为超级大国的各种强硬,那么拜登时代,中国要谨慎应对来自西方阵营的联合施压。对于中国而言,特朗普是一只无刃的钝刀,拜登则是一把精致的匕首。

总体而言,拜登执政,中美关系的本质不会发生改变,但是交锋的模式会相对柔和,谈判的方向,协议的执行等将更加可预期。

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