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台海若起戰事,會出現哪些前兆?關注這幾個方面就知道了 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

台海若起戰事,會出現哪些前兆?關注這幾個方面就知道了

台海若起戰事,會出現哪些前兆?關注這幾個方面就知道了
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全世界都在关注大选结果,尤其是台湾。台南成功大学政治学系副教授蒙志成认为,在美国大选尘埃落定前,会是大陆测试台湾底气,以及美国防卫台湾决心的契机。从现在开始,到新任美国总统宣誓就职之前,可能是台海出现军事冲突的危机时刻。

另一方面,进入11月,解放军军机每天都进入台湾西南空域,巡航已成日常活动。用台媒的话说,“从清晨至夜晚都来,让台湾空军战备必须时时保持紧绷”。有分析认为,大家在报道中看到的战机身影,仅是冰山一角,解放军战机多次飞行演练的背后,是一次又一次整体作战系统的大操演,大陆已做好随时应对一切挑战的准备。

频繁现身台西南空域的运-8反潜机(台军方示意图)

难怪台湾退役“中将”高安国日前在接受采访时表示:“两岸只要一开战,台湾就没有一个安全的地方,没有前线后方之分。台湾就那么一点大,一旦全面轰炸,台湾定会体无完肤。”不过,他同时指出,大陆应该不会这么做,而是主要针对雷达站、导弹基地、海空军机场港口、网络通讯系统等军事设施。所以,他提醒说:“如果你家离这些军事设置在1.5公里范围内,那么是时候考虑搬家了。”

的确,今年以来,台当局挟美自重的“台独”行为越来越猖狂,大陆也从未承诺放弃使用武力,且明确表态“能力始终都在,意志坚定不移”。现在大家关心的是,两岸何时开打?尽管很多时候战争是突然发生的,但并非毫无预兆。那么,倘若台海真有战事发生,会有什么前兆出现呢?

解放军海军陆战队

综合各方专家的观点,以下几个方面值得关注——

其一,股市动向。战争一旦要发生,股市绝不可能没有波动,尤其是两岸股价、货币皆不跌反涨,台湾股票会大跌,外资会纷纷跑路。

其二,市场与物价反应。物价突然上涨,说明有人趁机囤积大量生活物资,这时就要好好审视一下,是不是会爆发武装冲突;倘若市场上没出现囤积战略物资的恐慌情形,那爆发冲突的可能性就有限。

其三,海运空运情况。台湾四面环海,海上交通发达,国际贸易仰赖海上运输,一旦开战,必受影响。如果海运空运一切平稳,没有出现大幅上涨的情况,就算上空军机飞来飞去,也不用太担心。倘若海运空运都出现运费大幅上涨的情况,就需要提高警惕了。

高雄港

其四,美国撤侨。美台之间有个“撤侨”计划,按照该计划,持有美国护照的在台美国公民,在收到美军广播电台播放的“撤侨”命令12小时内,必须前往台北、高雄、基隆三地报到,以便美军运输机舰进行后撤作业。两岸若起战事,美国必定会提前撤侨。

其五,舆论动向。当一个国家进入战备状态时,媒体一定会占据舆论制高点,做相应的宣传攻势。”兵马未动,舆论先行”,是许多国家军事指挥者的重要手段。新闻舆论在战争中发挥着动员民众、凝聚人心、鼓舞士气、瓦解敌军的作用;还能起到先声夺人,争取国内国际主动权的重要作用。所以,看舆论动向,是警示还是放狠话,话说到什么程度,也是评判何时开战的风向标之一。

其六,大规模军事演习。军演不仅是常规训练手段,特定环境下也有掩盖战略意图、威慑敌人的作用。历史上有许多战争都是借演习之名,公开把部队部署在敏感区域,然后出其不意发起致命一击。

解放军海上实兵实弹演习,对海上目标进行连续打击

当然,以上几种情况,倘若单独出现,并不能说明什么,但如果同时出现,或是在一段时间内频繁发生,那就要提高警惕了。事实上,未来的统一之战,多半会突然发起、迅速结束,绝不会打成旷日持久的传统消耗战,以便把对两岸同胞的伤害降到最低。

但另一方面,不到最后一刻,我们也不会放弃和平统一的可能性。毕竟,是战争就会有伤亡,两岸同胞本是一家人,本着中国人不打中国人的原则,和平努力不到最后一刻,我们不会放弃。即便最后动用武力,针对的也只是“台独”分裂势力。

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