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霸權的一角已被撬開,知名投行警告:美元貶值35%可能就在今年 – 有海水的地方就有中國人

霸權的一角已被撬開,知名投行警告:美元貶值35%可能就在今年

霸權的一角已被撬開,知名投行警告:美元貶值35%可能就在今年
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随着新冠疫情在美国肆无忌惮地扩散,美国经济也几乎陷入停摆。更加危险的是,美国国内越来越多的矛盾开始爆发,无数的“亮丽风景线”开始反噬华盛顿的统治基础。而最近,有消息显示,美国全球霸权中很重要的一角——美元,已经被撬开。

据《日经中文网》在9月29日的消息显示,美国高盛集团,作为一家拥有快200年的国际投资银行,在近期对外表示,“深刻担忧美元,作为世界核心货币的寿命”。在今年9月份的数据里,美元指数出现了严重下滑,创造了近3年以来的最低记录。

报道表示,当美国经济长期因为疫情失控而陷入停摆之际,全球原本大量集中在美国的资本,开始向国外转移。而作为最先摆脱疫情困扰的中国,则获得了国际资本的青睐。而颇具讽刺的是,美国白宫却一直在想方设法让美国企业离开中国,放弃中国市场。

尽管在外界看来,此举是特朗普为了缓解当前国内的大规模失业浪潮,而做出的决定。但是响应此政策的美企却寥寥无几。毕竟,在相当长一段时间的制造业外移之后,美国国内缺乏充足的技术工人和管理人才。而且严重的工业空心化现象,让美国制造业企业无法获得有效的工业聚集效应。搬回美国之后,还是要从太平洋彼岸运输零部件,成本增加了,效率还降低了。资本怎么可能违背自己“逐利性”本性,为白宫服务。而且,由于美国国内黑白之争愈发激烈,稳定性也成为了很多企业担忧的原因。

需要注意的是,美元,作为美国世界霸权之中,极为重要的一角,在支撑美国长臂管辖时,起到了非常重要的作用。而美军在军事上的领先、科技产出投入等等,都与美元霸权息息相关。然而,如今随着美国国内各种问题纷至沓来,全球范围内对美元的寿命讨论,也越来越多。

国际知名投行摩根士丹利的前亚洲区话事人,斯蒂芬·洛奇,就在今年上周接受采访时透露,美国如今经济短期内复苏的希望,越来越渺茫。相反,“双底”衰退的几率反而超过了50%。这种情形,美元贬值35%的情况,可能就在今年年底发生。

而即便是美国国内,也开始有人认为,可以放弃美元的世界货币主导权。据了解,美国国际关系协会CFR也不知出于什么目的,就美国当前局势发声认为,美元的主导权或许需要适时放弃。美元的独大给美国的贸易竞争力产生了严重的阻碍。为此,该协会认定“是时候放弃美元主导权”了。

有意思的是,在“美元崩溃论”逐步形成的时候,而美债也没有好到哪里去。美国财政部的调查数据显示,今年7月份以来,国际投资者抛售美债的金额达到了207亿美元,而在过去的23个月时间里,有22个月,全球各大央行都在净抛售美债。

讽刺的是,在过去的20年里,无数人精心炮制“中国崩溃论”,结果20年后,美国却迎来了自己霸权一角——“美元”的崩溃论。(听风吹荷)

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